87.4% vs 3.8% — Opta’s supercomputer tells you there’s only one suspense in this match

Brothers, let’s get straight to the point. Opta’s supercomputer ran countless simulations—number of times unknown—and the result is: Spain’s probability of winning is 87.4%, the draw is 8.8%, and Saudi Arabia’s upset win is only 3.8%. The data from Gate’s prediction market is pretty much the same too—Spain’s win rate is 89%, the draw is 9%, and Saudi Arabia is 3.4%.

What does a 87.4% vs 3.8% gap mean? A 23-times difference. This isn’t a match—this is a “crushing script that’s already been written.”

I know some people will say: “Didn’t Spain get held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde in the last match? Why are you still so confident?” Brothers, it’s precisely because the last one ended in a draw that this one is even more solid. In the last match, Spain had 27 shots on goal but scored zero, creating an awkward record in World Cup history. The whole team is under pressure—criticism from the media, complaints from fans, and anger pent up inside themselves. Against Saudi Arabia in a situation like this, what do you think Spain will do? Kick them as hard as possible.

And now in Group H, the four teams are all tied with 1 point. If Spain still can’t take this one, the final round against Uruguay will be a do-or-die. De la Fuente isn’t stupid—he knows the strategic significance of this match. The whole team will go all out attacking from the first minute, completely different from the “playing it safe” approach in the last match.

So I’m telling you, 87.4% isn’t optimism—it’s rationality. Spain winning is a high-probability event, and the only suspense is by how many. A 2-0, 3-0, or even 4-0 scoreline is not unexpected.

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