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Polymarket currently clearly favors Spain more, but I think the market may be underestimating Saudi Arabia's defensive resilience.
Based on the performance in the first two rounds, although Spain has overall strength advantage, they surprisingly played a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, and their finishing ability in attack is not as stable as expected. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's recent draw against Uruguay shows their defensive organization and counterattack efficiency are worth noting.
If I purely predict the outcome, I think Spain has about a 70% chance to win, but it’s not easy to bet on the spread.
My predicted score: Spain 4:0 Saudi Arabia.
In trading, I prefer to buy Spain to win rather than chase a large score margin. During the World Cup group stage, getting the correct result is often more important than an exciting process; earning 3 points is the primary goal for strong teams.
Tonight, I continue to support the Red Fury team, hoping to successfully realize the prediction. ⚽️🔥
The post I wrote in the afternoon was already a triple-zero tonight #WorldCupPrediction Spain vs. Saudi Arabia