🚨 The biggest risk in the market is not bad news — but everyone has already bet on the same good news.

Because markets usually don’t crash because of fear.

They crash because of overly widespread certainty.

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Now, the story seems clear:

📉 Interest rate cuts are coming
📉 Yields will decline
📈 Liquidity will expand
📈 Risk assets will rebound

It’s a perfect narrative… which is exactly what makes it dangerous.

Because when something appears to be completely “understood,” markets often start pricing in outcomes opposite to perfection.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The bond market has not fully confirmed this excitement

Treasury yields are still relatively high — and that’s important.

It indicates that financial conditions may not be relaxing as smoothly or quickly as consensus expects.

And markets tend to punish the most:

Ignoring liquidity realities.

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⚠️ Higher yields won’t immediately destroy quality assets — they will compress all assets

They won’t instantly break quality.

They will slowly squeeze valuations and momentum.

This pressure first appears in interest rate-sensitive stocks: