Gold Forecasting and Analysis

1. Quick News Core Interpretation

Vans' statements at the Swiss negotiation site are very clear:

Factors that are bullish for gold (short-term): Almost none. The only potential disturbance is the "chaotic" state of Israel's ceasefire, but Vans explicitly said "significant progress has been made," and this uncertainty is also diminishing.

Factors that are bearish for gold (high certainty):

· Vans announced the Strait of Hormuz is open — this is an official confirmation, meaning the geopolitical premium will further rapidly diminish
· "Significant progress made in the past few hours" "More progress expected within hours" — negotiations are quickly moving toward an agreement
· Trump "committed to achieving a comprehensive regional ceasefire" — not only US-Iran but also Lebanon, overall geopolitical risk is declining
· The news of Iran closing the strait was discredited — the brief panic in the weekend market will be corrected at Monday's open

In one sentence: The certainty of geopolitical easing is increasing, not decreasing. This is medium-term bearish for gold.

2. Adjusted Monday Opening Prediction Based on the Quick News

Based on this quick news, the three scenarios I previously provided need to be adjusted:

Most likely scenario (highest probability):

Monday's open will likely directly gap down or open flat and then quickly decline. Reasons:

· After confirmation of the strait being open, the selling pressure accumulated over the weekend will be released at the open
· During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21), international gold prices have already fallen below 4200, indicating a need for further decline
· The panic over Iran blocking the strait has been discredited, and the bullish narrative loses its short-term exclusive hype

Key price level adjustments:

· Resistance above: 4180 (Friday rebound high, difficult to reach)
· Short-term pressure: 4160-4165 (possible rebound cap after open)
· Support below: 4145 (short-term strength/weakness dividing line), 4120 (June 19 low), 4100 (integer level)

3. Specific Trading Recommendations for Monday

1. If the open is a gap down around 4140-4150:

· Observe first, do not rush to short. Watch the 15-minute candlestick pattern — if it’s a large bearish candle, then you can lightly short with a stop at 4170, target 4120-4100.
· If it forms a doji or small bullish candle and stabilizes, it indicates the selling pressure has temporarily eased, wait for a rebound to around 4160-4165 before shorting again.

2. If the open directly breaks below 4120:

· Indicating strong bearish momentum, you can short directly with a stop at 4145, target 4100-4080.
· When near 4100, consider partial profit-taking and observe the behavior at the integer level.

3. Under any circumstances, absolutely do not bottom-fish for longs:

· Geopolitical easing confirmed + Fed rate hike expectations suppressed, double bearish factors stacking, going against the trend to buy longs.
· Any rebound is a shorting opportunity, not a reversal signal.

4. Risk Warning

1. Vans' statements are clear, but negotiations have not yet officially signed an agreement, so there are uncertainties. If Iran experiences unexpected setbacks, a short-term rebound may occur.
2. Liquidity in the Asian market on Monday is poor, spreads may widen, and sudden volatility will be irregular. Do not hold heavy positions within the first half hour of opening.
3. The above suggestions are based on public market information and do not constitute investment advice. Please make independent decisions based on your own situation and be sure to set stop-losses. $XAUUSD #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛