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U.S. Stock Market Outlook
The market seems to have ignored the hawkish comments from the FOMC. But upon reflection, I think it actually hasn't. Because we are all investing in the semiconductor industry chain, and the strong revenue expectations (growth on the numerator side) have caused the market to temporarily overlook the risks brought by the denominator side.
I believe the upcoming market will become more differentiated: assets with higher certainty and clearer growth expectations will continue to rise (such as storage), while those that are more median, have less exciting narratives, and where capital expenditure is a bit high (like Neocloud) may experience volatility or even decline.
Market segmentation will become more severe than before.
If the rate-cut cycle ends here, it’s actually not good news for large tech companies, but it benefits the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain.
From a cash flow perspective, storage and GPU companies have front-loaded their cash flows in recent years. Even if AI is very powerful, the giants will only turn positive on cash flow in the future. When interest rates rise, it clearly favors assets with front-loaded cash flows.
An interesting thing this week is that NVDA issued bonds. NVDA clearly isn’t short of money, and it’s obvious they won’t lack funds in the foreseeable future, which suggests that Huang also thinks this might be the best time in recent years to borrow money?