This weekend, I stared at the order book all day—the screen had me nearly welding my eyes to it.

Turns out this market has nothing that technical analysis can fix.

Do you think buying low and selling high can make you money?

That’s too naive.

This round of macro risk isn’t being transmitted from the stock market—it’s coming from the bond market.

The degree of the inverted yield curve has hit the highest level since 08, and the correlation coefficient between $BTC and U.S. Treasury yields has already surged above 0.7.

What does that mean?

Conventional institutions are now shoring up this side while knocking down that side—our stop-loss orders might be serving as liquidity for them.

Buying low and selling high?

Now even algorithms are harvesting each other; no matter how fast you react, you can’t outpace the calculation logic of large funds.

Back then, when I saw the liquidation data of MMT and YGG contracts—long positions being wiped out at 17x and 18x; the traded volume was only about $1 million and $4 million—that shows just how badly liquidity has already deteriorated.

Small-cap coins pop and explode at the same time; when they get hit, they get pierced through immediately.

In a market like this, there’s no follow-through. Getting in is just gambling.

My own feeling is: don’t blindly try to pick the bottom, and don’t impulsively chase longs.

The on-chain signals are getting weirder one after another, and funding rates are being crushed tightly—bears can’t even get their heads up.

What I fear most is this: you think you’re picking up at the bottom, but actually institutions are waiting to eat your stop-loss.

Next time I see signals that this kind of inverted interest rate expansion is widening, I’m going to take a couple of days off first.

Missing out is stronger than getting blown out.

And at a time like this, you’re still thinking about buying low and selling high?

The signals from the Federal Reserve haven’t loosened at all; the probability of a rate hike in September has already been fully priced in by CME.

The FOMC chaired by Waller maintains the 3.5–3.75% interest-rate range, and it hasn’t even hinted at rate cuts.

Market sentiment has shifted directly from “when will they cut” to “which month will they hike.” With $BTC hanging below 64k, the Fear & Greed Index is still oscillating between 14 and 23.

Once $BTC truly breaks above 64k, the liquidation intensity of short positions on mainstream CEXs could reach 7.86 million dollars—that’s when you’d really see liquidity released.

In this market, do you think you’re watching a bottom being built, or waiting for the final blow?
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