I am Jin Yingying! Today is Sunday, and the market is relatively stable. Focus first on the US-Iran nuclear talks at 19:30 tonight.

The core impact of the US-Iran negotiations is on oil prices → inflation expectations → Federal Reserve rate cut expectations → risk appetite → Bitcoin trends.

1. If the negotiations are successfully concluded, it will be bullish and drive prices higher.
Oil prices will quickly fall back, significantly easing market inflation concerns. Traders will bet on the Fed cutting rates earlier, causing global capital flows from US dollar and gold safe-haven assets to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin will surge in the short term, breaking the first resistance at 64,800 and aiming for the 66,000-67,000 range. The market will see a short squeeze as short positions are forced to cover.

The shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, energy inflation pressures diminish, and the core negative factor of high interest rates suppressing crypto assets weakens. Risk appetite is fully restored.
If the agreement is sustainable, the market will enter a slow, oscillating upward trend: inflation expectations continue to weaken, rate cut expectations ferment, and Bitcoin finds strong support at the Bollinger middle band of 63,500. Pullbacks will be buying opportunities, gradually challenging previous highs above 68,000.

2. If negotiations break down and conflicts escalate, panic selling will occur.
Oil prices will surge, and the market will reprice the global inflation rebound. Traders will bet on the Fed delaying rate cuts and maintaining high interest rates. Institutions will sell off risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks in bulk, with capital flowing into US dollars, US Treasuries, and gold safe-havens.

Bitcoin will sharply drop in the short term, with initial support at 63,500. If broken, it will decline to the Bollinger lower band at 62,100. Under extreme pessimism, it could break below 62,000, putting Doudan’s life on the line.

In the case of escalating conflicts leading to large-scale blockade of the Strait or full regional war, only a small amount of capital will buy Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. However, short-term selling pressure will overwhelm safe-haven buying, causing prices to fall first and then oscillate, without a direct upward move.

The ongoing geopolitical crisis keeps risk off the table, and rate cut expectations are delayed further. Overall, Bitcoin remains under pressure, with the range shifting down to 60,000-63,500. Each rebound faces resistance, and only signals of conflict easing will restore the market.

A qualified trader must not only focus on controllable market analysis and technical structures but also pay close attention to uncontrollable international news #持有USD1即享收益 .