I think BCA Research's analysis is logical in the short term. If a provisional agreement between the United States and Iran materializes, markets could react positively for three main reasons:

1. Decrease in geopolitical risk

Investors hate uncertainty. A easing of tensions in the Middle East would reduce the risk premium embedded in stocks and commodities.

2. Downward pressure on oil

The prospect of smoother traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a more stable energy supply could lower oil prices. This would help reduce inflation fears.

3. Bond yield easing

If expected inflation decreases due to cheaper oil, bond yields could decline, which is generally favorable for stocks, especially in the consumer sectors and small caps.

What makes me cautious

BCA Research also pointed out that markets could be overly optimistic. A provisional agreement does not mean a complete normalization of relations between Washington and Tehran. The risk of tensions returning remains real, and energy prices could stay above pre-crisis levels.

Conclusion

In my opinion, an agreement would be bullish for stocks, bearish for oil, and favorable for bonds in the short term. However, for this trend to last several months, concrete and sustainable progress will be needed, not just a temporary diplomatic truce. Investors should therefore take advantage of the improved sentiment while remaining alert to geopolitical risks that could reemerge quickly.

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