As of June 21, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF over the past 30 days was approximately $6.35 billion, setting a record since its listing in January 2024, ranking first among all 582 thirty-day windows.

The ETF has experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with total net inflows decreasing to about $53.4 billion. This week alone, there was a net outflow of approximately $227 million, accounting for 96% of all crypto ETF outflows, with capital outflows almost entirely concentrated in BTC.

MSBT currently holds about 4,345 coins, with a holding value of approximately $271 million, with recent purchases continuously flowing in through Coinbase Prime.

The core driver of this record-breaking outflow stems from the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish shift at the June FOMC meeting. The dot plot shows the median interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 has been sharply raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, completely ending the narrative of rate cuts.

The current uncertainty lies in the fact that US-Iran technical level negotiations took place on June 21 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. If breakthroughs are achieved, geopolitical risks may ease, potentially alleviating some of the outflow pressure, but the structural suppression caused by the upward revision of interest rate expectations is difficult to reverse in the short term.

The support zone of $60,400–$62,000 is a key dividing line between bulls and bears, and resistance at $64,000–$65,000 remains unbroken until a volume breakout occurs, maintaining a cautious bearish outlook. $BTC