This time Goldman Sachs suddenly cut its expectations sharply, essentially meaning Wall Street has completely given up on the fantasy of rate cuts. The market logic has directly reversed, leaving no room for hope.

Goldman Sachs directly overturns previous judgments: originally betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the end of 2026 or early 2027, now it’s confirmed that there will be zero rate cuts throughout 2026, with easing pushed back until after mid-2027. At the same time, they cut their year-end target price for gold by $500, from $5,400 to $4,900. It’s important to note that Goldman Sachs has always been a top gold bull; this change of stance indicates that top institutions are collectively admitting defeat and acknowledging the harsh reality.

The core reason is very simple: U.S. employment and inflation resilience are off the charts, and the new Federal Reserve Chair is extremely hawkish, with no intention of easing to rescue the market. The Fed’s current core approach is straightforward: prioritize controlling inflation, regardless of stock markets, gold prices, or market sentiment, with high interest rates to be maintained long-term.

This wave of adjustment is a heavy bearish signal for all risk assets. First, gold and the crypto market are under heavy pressure—these interest-free assets fear high rates the most. U.S. Treasuries are steadily earning interest, and no one wants to hold assets with no yield, causing bullish momentum to stall. Second, U.S. stocks, AI, tech growth stocks, and Hong Kong-listed Chinese concepts are all cooling off. High rates will suppress the prices of all high-valuation assets, and the bubbles inflated by expectations of rate cuts are being squeezed out.

Capital flows are shifting dramatically, moving away from high-risk growth assets and back into the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and stable defensive sectors like banks. Global liquidity tightening continues, with foreign capital fleeing emerging markets, making it much harder to make money in the market.

In summary: Goldman Sachs’s downgrade is not a minor adjustment but a complete overhaul of the trading logic for the year. In the second half, don’t bet on easing or liquidity injections; all markets sustained by liquidity are doomed. The only correct approach is to adopt a cautious defense and #我的Gate交易时刻 avoid high-position risks.