📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 20/06/2026

The latest statistical data shows that the correlation between the FGI and Winrate remains low and continues to lean negative (r ~ -0.309). This further reinforces that FGI is not suitable as a tool for predicting price trends or identifying trade entries, but it still has practical value in quantifying position risk. In general, trading performance tends to weaken when market sentiment moves into extreme euphoria, making FGI more useful as an early risk-warning signal rather than a signal to expand profit expectations.
Below is a summary of Winrate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across sentiment zones for reference:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.2% • R:R=1:1.21 • n=150
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 47.5% • R:R=1:1.11 • n=222
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.5% • R:R=1:0.90 • n=106
The percentage of days with performance above the average level of 46.79% by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.3%
😐 Neutral: 38.0%
😨 Fear: 54.1%
😱 Extreme Fear: 69.8%
➤ Scalpers can use FGI as a guide to adjust expected profit targets when entering trades:
📈 When FGI is high, expected profit targets should be raised to ensure the R:R is large enough to compensate for the decline in win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, expected profit targets can be reduced to improve capital turnover speed and make profit-taking easier.
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