Looking at Zhipu. Setting aside the current very small circulating supply, the fact that there will be unlocking and re-pricing in July and next year, let's simply see whether Zhipu is really expensive now.


First, give Zhipu some face, directly compare it to Anthropic.
Anthropic's latest disclosed data
ARR = 47 billion USD, valuation based on 1 trillion USD. ARR/valuation ≈ 21
Zhipu's estimated ARR in March was 1.7 billion RMB, and in the past three months, Zhipu has undergone a dramatic change.
We directly raise Zhipu's ARR to 3 billion RMB.
Currently, the valuation is about 850 billion RMB, ARR/valuation = 283, roughly ten times that of Anthropic.
So, is it expensive? Damn, it's too expensive.
But the circulating supply is small, less than 5% before July, with cornerstone investors unlocking about 8% in July.
The circulating supply can reach about 13%. And the cornerstone investors are all institutions, they may not sell.
Zhipu seems to be able to keep rising until the large unlock next year.
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