# Predicting the World Cup: Spain vs. Saudi Arabia

The Battle for the Dignity of the Bullfighters—Spain or a Big Win over Saudi Arabia

Under the night sky of Dallas, the Spanish bullfighter legion is standing on the edge of a cliff. After a 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in the first round, the situation for advancing from Group H no longer allows them to make any more mistakes. Meanwhile, on the other side is Saudi Arabia. In the first round, they grabbed 1 point from Uruguay thanks to a goalkeeper’s magical performance and the team’s resolute defending. But perhaps this was the last moment of their glory. Next, I expect Spain—led by Yamal—to rebound strongly and achieve a big win over Saudi Arabia:

## 1. The “being shut out” in the first round was a genuine statistical fluke

In Spain’s first-round match against Cape Verde, they had 27 shots in total, with 14 on target. Their expected goals value was as high as 3.2, yet they ended up with nothing to show for it. This is not a tactical problem, nor a strength problem—it is an extreme statistical anomaly in the literal sense. In the history of football, matches where expected goals exceed 3.0 but end with a goalless result occur with a probability of less than 0.3%.

In other words, Spain’s attacking system is completely fine—they just had incredibly bad luck. And luck is something that reverts to the mean. When a team creates enough scoring opportunities but fails to convert, the next match often brings a burst of goal-scoring as a rebound. Unfortunately for Saudi Arabia, they just happened to collide with the barrel of that rebound.

## 2. Saudi Arabia’s “satisfaction trap”: they’ve effectively finished the job early

After drawing Uruguay in the first round, the entire Saudi team was filled with a kind of “mission accomplished” satisfaction. After the match, their head coach Mancini publicly stated that this draw was one of the greatest moments in Saudi football history. The players also celebrated on social media for stealing 1 point from Uruguay.

But the problem is that this kind of satisfaction often breeds a fatal psychological complacency. When a team thinks, “We’ve already done very well,” their focus and fight in the next match can subtly dip. And what about Spain? They are going through the complete opposite mental state—anger, unwillingness, and a desire to prove themselves. When two such starkly different mindsets collide, the outcome is easy to imagine.

## 3. De la Fuente’s ability to change tactics: he never lets the same plan fail twice

Spain’s head coach De la Fuente’s most underrated capability is his speed in tactical adjustments. In the 2024 European Championship, after Spain were held to a draw by Croatia in the first group-stage match, De la Fuente made a decisive tactical change in the second match against Italy, and ultimately won 2-0. The same script has almost appeared again—now.

In the first round against Cape Verde, De la Fuente made one mistake—he brought Yamal in off the bench, leaving the team’s strongest wide-lane breakthrough weapon for the last 20 minutes. But this time, he won’t make the same mistake again. All signs before the match point to Yamal and Nico Williams starting at the same time, with two razor-sharp wide-lane weapons tearing into Saudi Arabia’s defensive line starting from the first minute. And Saudi Arabia’s full-backs, facing this level of impact, simply won’t hold out until halftime ends.

## 4. The true nature of Saudi Arabia’s “pseudo-strong team”: the first-round draw hid too many issues

Saudi Arabia’s first-round draw with Uruguay looks good on paper—goalkeeper Oweis made 9 saves, the whole team ran 112 kilometers, and their defense looked united. But once you peel off that shiny exterior, you’ll find that Saudi Arabia’s back line is riddled with holes.

In the first round, Uruguay created at least 5 excellent scoring opportunities. It was only because Nunez was out of form and Suarez was already getting on in age that they repeatedly missed chances to score. Saudi Arabia’s three-center-back system can barely cope with aerial balls, but against ground penetration and quick combination passing, their turning speed and their awareness in covering and tracking back are completely out of sync. And Spain, precisely, is one of the best teams in the world at ground penetration and quick passing. When Rodri’s through ball slips between two Saudi center-backs, and when Pedri’s low shot from just outside the penalty area drives straight into the corner, the problems in Saudi Arabia’s defensive line will be exposed completely.

## 5. Set pieces: Spain’s hidden “nuclear weapon”

Many people mention Spain and think first of their possession and control, but they overlook Spain’s terrifying dominance in set pieces. In the 2024 European Championship and this World Cup qualification campaign, nearly 40% of Spain’s goals came from set pieces—corner kicks, free kicks, and penalties. That is an extremely striking proportion, even exceeding Germany and England, who are known for their heading ability.

And Saudi Arabia? The team’s average height ranks at the bottom among all participating teams, and their center-backs have almost no aerial advantage against Morata, Laporte, or Lenoir-Mang. When Spain wins a free kick near the edge of the penalty area, or when they get a corner near the corner flag area, every set piece becomes a potential scoring opportunity. I dare say Spain will score at least 1 goal from set pieces in this match, and Saudi Arabia will have no way to stop it.

Finally, let’s return to the most fundamental question: Spain needs this big win. Not only for qualification, but for dignity. A team that lifted the European Championship trophy just last year, a team equipped with the world’s top-tier midfield lineup, cannot accept the outcome of two consecutive World Cup group-stage matches being drawn against weaker opponents.