Group Stage Second Round, Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: The Red Fury definitely won't be pulling off another upset, but is a big win over the opponent difficult?



Spain and Saudi Arabia are not complete strangers; the two teams have faced each other three times before—it's not a rare occurrence—and back in the 2006 World Cup, they actually had a matchup. In those three encounters, Spain won all three games with a total goal difference of 9:2. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has faced European teams 11 times in World Cup matches, but the results were mostly grim—only 1 win and 10 losses.

Therefore, in a match with such a clear strength disparity, the real point of interest isn't whether Saudi Arabia can pull off an upset, but rather how Spain will perform after their first match as they face the upcoming games. According to Opta's predictions, the majority support favors Spain winning at 86.7%, Saudi Arabia at 4.3%, and a draw at 9%.

So, in this World Cup where many strong teams initially struggle before rallying, the only real question is whether Spain can secure a big victory.
The last match revealed issues with Spain's wingers missing, but fortunately, in this game, the outside world can expect them to return to their starting lineup and their usual form. Therefore, the team doesn't need many adjustments—just prioritize returning to the style they had at the 2024 European Championship: sharper breakthroughs, more accurate passing, and more active running!
Besides that, Spain could also use this tournament to strengthen or improve their threat from set pieces—after all, their opponents might try to limit their space through defensive tactics. Improving their set-piece ability, perhaps through Merino's experience at Arsenal, could be a meaningful aspect of this match.
My personal feeling is that Saudi Arabia won't score in this game, especially not to pull off an upset against Spain! The reason being: perhaps, like Qatar, they might be exposed in the second match when facing a stronger opponent.
Saudi Arabia, unfortunately, couldn't withstand Uruguay's offensive in the first game. For this match against Spain, where earning points was never part of the plan, it seems impossible for them to stop Spain from wanting to win—after all, if this is the first game of the group, Spain might still slip up due to overconfidence; but with Spain already being upset in their first match, how can Saudi Arabia pull off another upset?
Therefore, whether they park the bus in the back, strengthen their defense, or even commit fouls, it won't be enough to stop a Spain that will be especially serious about this game.
Perhaps Saudi Arabia's more realistic goal is simply to avoid a heavy defeat. After all, winning in the last round against Cape Verde could give them a chance to advance as the third team in the group. So, looking at it this way, both sides' goals are quite aligned—Saudi Arabia doesn't want a humiliating defeat, and Spain probably isn't aiming for a huge victory either. In that case, a 3-goal win for Spain would suffice—what more do they need?
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