Brothers, good afternoon.

Let's review this wave of decline; a very obvious signal has caught my attention.

Unlike the last time BTC sharply dropped into the 50,000s, this time it’s consolidating around 63,000, and on-chain data shows almost no signs of whales accumulating.

🧐 A few data phenomena worth warning about:

1️⃣ Trading volume shrinking vs. open interest surging
Open interest (OI) on mainstream derivatives exchanges is rapidly rebounding, but actual trading volume in spot and derivatives is decreasing week by week. This indicates that the current market is more about “leveraging up” rather than genuine cash turnover.

2️⃣ Short-term holders can’t hold on anymore
The profit realization rate for short-term holders (STH-SOPR) has turned negative, meaning recent entrants are starting to cut losses and exit.

2️⃣ Short-term holders can’t hold on anymore
The profit realization rate for short-term holders (STH-SOPR) has turned negative, meaning recent entrants are starting to cut losses and exit.

3️⃣ Selling pressure has not been fully released
The sell wall on Coinbase’s order book is very thick, with a large amount of chips remaining on the exchange. It looks like the price has fallen, but the actual selling pressure has not been digested; it’s just hanging there.

💡 Conclusions and risks:

Currently, BTC is still at risk of chain-wide leveraged liquidations. If the price continues to fall and triggers concentrated stop-losses among longs, that will be the real test.

📌 Trading suggestions:
In this environment of “volume-less decline” and lack of whale support, it’s recommended to brothers to reduce leverage, watch more and act less. Either wait for whales to enter and support the bottom (none seen now), or wait for this wave of leverage to be completely liquidated.
Do you think this wave will first clear leverage, or will mysterious funds come in to rescue the market? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇#
#预测世界杯西班牙VS沙特