Long-term accumulation vs. short-term caution—who is leading the market?

Behind today's price rebound, on-chain data shows a starkly different picture: Glassnode's accumulation trend score hits a record high, K33's long-term holder supply share reaches a 79% record, and CryptoQuant's Sharpe ratio drops to cycle lows—all indicating that potential demand is quietly strengthening. However, the weakness in short-term funding rates exposes hesitation among leveraged traders. This disconnect is not contradictory: long-term holders are steadily accumulating on the spot side, while short-term players often only regain confidence after heavy selling. Therefore, whether the current rebound develops into a trend depends on whether leverage sentiment can catch up. If funding rates gradually normalize, the accumulation signals will be validated; if they remain subdued, the market still needs more patience to wait for a true turning point.
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