Strait of Hormuz Again in Turmoil? What's Really Going on with the "Rashomon" at the US-Iran Negotiation Table

Good afternoon everyone, today there is a very important international development that deserves close attention, and I must clarify it thoroughly with you.

Today (June 21), the US and Iran are scheduled to hold technical-level talks in Switzerland. This was originally a normal diplomatic process following the signing of the memorandum of understanding on June 18, but the day before the negotiations began, a typical "Rashomon" scene unfolded at the Strait of Hormuz.

Here's a rough outline of the situation:

On June 20, the Iranian military suddenly announced that, due to alleged violations of the previous memorandum (mainly referring to Israeli military operations in Lebanon not stopping), they would close the Strait of Hormuz, and even the Revolutionary Guard Navy issued radio warnings that ships attempting to pass might encounter mines. The situation was roughly as follows:

Once this statement was made, the global energy markets were definitely shaken.

But then, a quick reversal happened.

The US military quickly denied it, saying that 55 commercial ships passed normally that day and there was no sign of a blockade. Vice President Pence also stated, "There is no evidence that Iran is closing the strait."

Even more interesting, President Trump announced on the 20th that they would impose a toll for passage through the strait. This move has a flavor of "regardless of whether they close it or not, set the rules first."

Why are there such starkly different accounts? This is what we call a game at the negotiation table.

Look, Pakistan, as the coordinator, confirmed that the delegation will go to Switzerland, the Iranian delegation has already arrived, and the US side is also going. At this critical juncture, Iran's announcement of "closing the strait" is likely a form of maximum pressure, aiming to gain more leverage in the upcoming technical negotiations, especially to express dissatisfaction with Israel's actions in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US denying the closure and emphasizing normal navigation is meant to stabilize market sentiment and also to signal that they won't be intimidated by threats.

To sum up the current situation:

Although the rhetoric is fierce, even confrontational, the diplomatic channels are still functioning. Negotiations in Switzerland will start today, and Trump also announced that during the ceasefire, no tolls will be charged for Hormuz (there are slight discrepancies between sources—one says no tolls, another says a toll announcement—details will depend on subsequent implementation, but this itself is a signal).

What does this mean? It indicates that neither side really wants to escalate to a full-blown conflict. The so-called "closing of the strait" currently appears more as a psychological and public opinion tactic.

We will continue to monitor the specific progress of today’s negotiations in Switzerland, as the Strait of Hormuz is a sensitive point that can influence the entire situation; any movement could have far-reaching effects.

What do you think about this "Rashomon"? Feel free to discuss rationally in the comments.

# Hormuz "Closure Rashomon," Swiss Negotiations Begin Today?