#黄金早报 | June 21, 2026

| Indicator | Value | Change |
|------|------|------|
| Spot Gold | $4,154.78 | -0.79% |
| COMEX Futures | $4,172.9 | -1.72% |
| Domestic T+D | 935.78 RMB/gram | -4.94 RMB |
| Average Jewelry Price | ~1,260 RMB/gram | 450 RMB below the year's high |
| 7-Day Change | -3.8% | |
| ATH Drawdown | -25.6% | Peak $5,595 (1/29) |

### Last Night's Major Events

1. **Federal Reserve Waller's Hawkish Debut** — Dot plot shows 9/18 participants expect rate hikes this year, 0 in March; removed forward guidance, statement shortened to 130 words. December rate hike probability from 60%→85%
2. **U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Memorandum Takes Effect** — Geopolitical safe-haven premium quickly unwinds, news on 6/18 briefly pushed gold prices up by $70 before retreating
3. **Gold ETF Outflows Continue** — Nearly half a month, 7 domestic gold ETFs net outflow of 5.63 billion RMB, SPDR reduced holdings by 9 tons in a week
4. **Goldman Sachs Lowers Year-End Target** — From $5,400→$4,900, if rate hikes materialize, possibly down to $4,440
5. **Citi Raises 3-Month Target** — From $4,000→$4,500, maintains bullish outlook of $5,000 for June-December

### Resistance and Support

| Level | Price | Explanation |
|------|------|------|
| Short-term Resistance | $4,230 | First wall of rebound |
| Key Resistance | $4,370-$4,400 | 20-day moving average + dense trapped zone |
| Short-term Support | $4,120 | Last support zone for bulls |
| **Critical Support** | **$4,020-$4,030** | **Strong support within the year, a break below signals deep correction** |
| Extreme Support | $3,650-$3,700 | Previous bull market launch platform |

### Strategy

**Short-term: Avoid left-side bottom fishing.** The Fed's hawkish signals haven't been fully digested by the market, rate hike expectations are still rising. $4,150-$4,160 is just a technical buffer, not a solid bottom.

- **Want to buy physical gold**: Wait until around $4,000 stabilizes, then buy in batches. Bank investment gold bars at 922-924 RMB/gram are more cost-effective than jewelry stores.
- **Want to trade**: The current key level is $4,200; if it can't hold, don't expect a rebound; if it breaks below $4,020, look toward $3,650.
- **Holding old gold**: Redemption price is 905-910 RMB/gram; in the short term, it will still follow the market weakly. If not urgent, avoid selling.

**Core logic unchanged: Gold has decoupled from geopolitical safe-haven, purely following rate trends.** Rate hikes are more like paper tigers (U.S.-Iran agreement + oil price retreat → inflation peaks), actual probability of rate hikes is much lower than the dot plot suggests. But the market trades expectations, not reality.

### Key Time Points

| Date | Event | Impact |
|------|------|------|
| Monday, 6/22 | Domestic market opening | Gap risk after Dragon Boat Festival holiday |
| 7/29 | Next FOMC | Watch for changes in rate hike language |
| August | Non-farm payroll data | Cooling employment → rate hike expectations fall |
| 9/16 | FOMC Quarterly Meeting | **Most critical point of the year**, determines whether a major bottom is confirmed |

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