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Last week, Bitcoin's layout gained nearly 40,000 in oil, with a profit margin of 6,000 points. Today, the long-term analysis of Bitcoin is back! Bitcoin's long-term layout for next week:
1. In-depth analysis of long-term trends
Bitcoin’s weekly level is facing multiple layers of resistance, with each rebound appearing weak and unable to stabilize at key resistance levels. The buying momentum continues to weaken, confirming that all rebounds are merely corrective patterns within a downtrend. Overall, the main trend next week is unlikely to reverse, and the medium- to long-term downward channel is fully open. Therefore, all rebounds should be viewed as entry opportunities for long-term high positions. Strictly avoid contrarian trades on the left side, and maintain a trend-following approach throughout.
2. Core negative news
1. Macro liquidity tightening: The Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate cycle is prolonged, with rate cut expectations continuously delayed, and dollar liquidity remains tight, suppressing all digital assets.
2. Regulatory and capital pressure: The US SEC continues to tighten crypto regulation; spot Bitcoin ETF funds have been net outflows for several consecutive weeks, with institutional holdings steadily reducing and exiting.
3. Market capital siphoning effect: The US stock AI sector continues to siphon market funds, risk appetite shifts toward traditional equity markets, and liquidity in the crypto market continues to shrink.
4. On-chain selling pressure: Large whales and miners are continuously dumping on-chain, with major holders transferring out chips to sell off, creating ongoing selling pressure.
5. The phase-out of safe-haven narratives: Global geopolitical risks increase, funds flock to gold and other traditional safe-haven assets, causing the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital store of value to temporarily lose effectiveness.
6. US-Iran negotiations collapse, triggering global asset sell-offs: Negotiations between the US and Iran are canceled, combined with the Fed’s more hawkish monetary policy stance, causing the dollar index to surge to a one-year high.
7. Middle East tensions escalate, reversing safe-haven logic: Iran’s military officially announces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, banning all ships from passing. Markets initially hoped for negotiations to ease tensions, but conflicts have intensified again.
3. Long-term strategic layout
Entry: Gradually accumulate long positions in the 67,500-69,500 range.
Stop-loss: Above 71,000.
Target: 61,500-54,200.
The above is only my personal analysis. I will update based on real-time news and data. Brothers are welcome to come and discuss with me! #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判推迟 $BTC