BTC Weekend Market Brief: Why is Bitcoin stalling at 63,800? Next week, just one word: wait and see—the third time it fully breaks below 60,000, it will rush toward 55k!】

Brothers and sisters, have a great weekend 😊

During the weekend, Bitcoin will most likely hover around 63,750–64,500, bouncing back and forth and churning the whole time—so much that bulls are delighted while bears are getting annoyed. Liquidity is poor over the weekend to begin with, so both sides stay put; that’s normal. However, it seems the bulls have a slight upper hand, secretly rebounding—too disgusting!

But from this position, no matter how you look at it, it doesn’t look like it’s going higher.

1. What I feel from the market: not exciting.

The price jumped from 62,200 to 63,800, moving 1,600 points. But trading volume just won’t rise. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the rebound candles’ bodies recently aren’t big; they’re nowhere near the volume during the earlier selloff.

This kind of rebound isn’t because the bulls are very strong—it’s because the bears have temporarily stopped. The 61,000–62,000 area is indeed a buy zone, but the buying power was already mostly used up after the first and second tests of 60,000. This is the third time.

“Nothing happens more than three times.” This time when it touches 60,000 again, I feel it will most likely break through directly and head for prices starting with 5.

2. On the macro side, everything is lined up as bad news.

The U.S. Dollar Index is already up near 101, a new one-year high. The Federal Reserve has just done its hawkish pivot, and the dot plot shows several people believe there will still be rate hikes this year. When the dollar is strong, an interest-free asset like Bitcoin is basically getting beaten down.

The Iran-US agreement has also been signed—good news was already fully priced in. Now there are still lots of uncertainties around how the agreement will be implemented. Even Vice President Vance’s trip to Switzerland was canceled, and Israel is still fighting. Geopolitics is already out of stories—there’s nothing left to tell.

There’s also something called global M2 money supply, which has already hit a historical high. But this time Bitcoin didn’t follow through with the rise; the previous correlation is already broken. More liquidity doesn’t necessarily mean the coin price will rise—the market’s pricing logic has changed.

3. How will next week go? I still stick with the same judgment.

Around 65,000 is the ceiling.

Technically, 64,100–65,000 is a structural resistance zone, with supply capping the 4-hour timeframe. Also, around 65,500 is the recent high. 66,000–67,000 is a congestion zone, so the probability of a rebound reaching there is extremely low.

If on Monday it can touch 64,500–65,000 again, that would be like delivering money to shorts.

The first target is still 60,000–61,000. If it finds support there, you can consider reducing positions; if it directly breaks through and sinks, then you keep looking at 55,000.

4. The strategy is simple. At the start of next week, keep a close eye on two levels:

The 64,500–65,000 area—so long as the 4-hour chart shows a long upper wick or a bearish candle with a clear body, that’s a signal to add to short positions. Put the stop-loss at 66,000, and the first target is 60,000.

If the price drops straight down and breaks below 62,000 with increased volume, you can follow the move to chase the short; the target remains unchanged.

If you currently hold short positions, just hold them. Set your moving stop-loss properly—don’t get scared off by small pullbacks.

One last thing:

A lot of people are still waiting to short at 67,000 or even 68,000—wake up. Once the market starts pricing in the FOMC rate-hike expectations, it will be very hard for Bitcoin to put together a decent rebound.

65,000 is very likely the ceiling for this wave of rebound.

60,000 isn’t the finish line—it’s just a signpost, waiting to be smashed through for the third time.

Brothers and sisters, we’ll just wait and see the third test and the breakdown as it heads toward 50K.