BTC Weekend Market Brief: Why is Bitcoin still stuck around 63,800? Next week, it’ll be one word: wait and see—once it breaks fully below 60,000 for the third time, it’ll head straight for 55,000!】

Brothers and sisters, happy weekend 😊

During the weekend, Bitcoin will most likely just hover in the 63,750—64500 range, with back-and-forth fluctuations. It’s enough to make the bulls feel thrilled and to make the bears stew in frustration. Weekend liquidity is usually poor, so both sides keep their positions—that’s normal. But it seems the bulls have gained a slight edge, quietly bouncing back up behind the scenes. It’s really nauseating!

However, no matter how you look at it, this level doesn’t look like it’s about to go higher.

1、What the order book looks like to me: not exciting.

The price bounced from 62,200 to 63,800, a move of 1,600 points. But trading volume just can’t get going. From the 4-hour chart, the recent rebound candles have small real bodies—far worse than the volume during the earlier downswing.

This kind of rebound isn’t because the bulls are that strong; it’s because the bears have temporarily stopped. The 61,000-62,000 area is indeed a bid zone, but the buying power was already almost used up after the first and second tests of 60,000. This is the third time.

“One more time and you’re out.” This time, when it touches 60,000 again, I feel there’s a high chance it will break straight through and go straight toward prices starting with 5.

2、On the macro side, it’s all bad news lining up.

The **U.S. Dollar Index** is already up near 101, a new one-year high. The **Federal Reserve** has just completed its hawkish shift, and the **dot plot** shows that several people think there will be more rate hikes within the year. When the dollar is strong, assets like Bitcoin—non-yielding assets—get pressed down.

The **Iran-U.S. agreement** has also been signed, and the good news has already been fully priced in. Now, there are still many uncertainties around the implementation of the agreement. The Vice President Vance’s Swiss itinerary was canceled, and Israel is still fighting. Geopolitics is already out of stories to tell.

There’s also something called **global M2 money supply**, which has already hit a historical high. But this time, Bitcoin hasn’t followed through with the rise. The prior correlation has already broken. More liquidity doesn’t necessarily mean higher coin prices—the market’s pricing logic has changed.

3、Where will it go next week? I still have the same view.

Around 65,000 is the ceiling.

Technically, 64,100-65,000 is a structural resistance zone, where supply on the 4-hour timeframe is pressing down. And around 65,500 is the recent high. 66,000-67,000 is a congestion zone, so the probability of a rebound reaching there is extremely low.

If on Monday it can touch 64,500-65,000 again, that’s basically handing money to the shorts.

The first target is still 60,000-61,000. If support holds there, you can consider reducing positions; if it breaks straight through, then we keep looking at 55,000.

4、The strategy is simple. At the start of next week, watch two levels closely:

In the 64,500-65,000 area—so long as on the 4-hour chart you see a long upper wick or an actual bearish candle—this is a signal to add to shorts. The stop-loss is set at 66,000, and the initial target is 60,000.

If the price goes down directly and breaks below 62,000 with increased volume, you can also follow the move and chase the short—same target.

If you currently hold short positions, just hold them. Set your trailing stop properly—don’t get shaken out by small bounces.

Finally, one more thing:

A lot of people are still waiting to short at 67,000 or even 68,000. Wake up. The macro picture has already changed. Once **FOMC** rate-hike expectations start getting priced in, it will be very hard for Bitcoin to put together a decent rebound.

65,000 may very likely be the ceiling of this rebound.

60,000 isn’t the endpoint—it’s just a roadside sign, waiting to be smashed through for the third time.

Brothers and sisters, let’s wait and see it test the breakdown for the third time and run toward 50,000.