BTC Weekend Market Brief: Why is Bitcoin still at 63,800? Next week, just one word: wait and see, the third time breaking below 60,000 will send it straight to 55k!】

Brothers and sisters, happy weekend 😊

During the weekend, Bitcoin is most likely to hover between 63,750 and 64,500, oscillating back and forth, making the bulls ecstatic and the bears frustrated. Liquidity is usually low on weekends, with both sides holding their positions, which is normal. But it seems the bulls have a slight edge, quietly bouncing back up, which is really annoying!

However, at this level, it doesn’t look like it’s going up.

1. My feeling from the market: not exciting.

The price bounced from 62,200 to 63,800, a 1,600-point rebound. But the trading volume just can’t pick up. On the 4-hour chart, recent rebound candles are not large, and compared to the volume during the previous decline, it’s far less.

This kind of rebound isn’t because the bulls are strong, but because the bears have temporarily pulled back. The 61,000-62,000 zone is indeed a buy area, but the buying power has been mostly exhausted from the first and second tests of 60,000. This is the third time.

Third strikes are not good. If it touches 60,000 again, I feel it’s very likely to break through directly and head toward a price starting with 5.

2. On the macro side, all bad news is queued up.

The dollar index is near 101, a new yearly high. The Federal Reserve just shifted to a hawkish stance, and the dot plot shows several members still expect rate hikes this year. When the dollar is strong, assets like Bitcoin, which have no interest, are suppressed.

The Iran-US agreement has been signed, and the good news has been exhausted. There are still many uncertainties in the implementation of the agreement. Vice President Vance’s Swiss trip was canceled, and Israel is still fighting. Geopolitics no longer has any stories to tell.

Another thing is the global M2 money supply, which has hit a record high. But Bitcoin didn’t follow the rise this time; the previous correlation has broken. More liquidity doesn’t necessarily mean higher prices; the market’s pricing logic has changed.

3. How will next week go? I still hold the same view.

Around 65,000 is the ceiling.

Technically, 64,100-65,000 is a structural resistance zone, with supply pressing down on the 4-hour chart. Also, around 65,500 is the recent high, and 66,000-67,000 is a congestion zone, so the probability of a rebound reaching here is very low.

If on Monday it can reach 64,500-65,000 again, it’s like giving money to the shorts.

The first target remains 60,000-61,000. If support holds there, consider reducing positions; if it breaks straight through, then continue to 55,000.

4. The strategy is simple: focus on two levels early next week:

In the 64,500-65,000 zone, as long as the 4-hour chart shows a long upper shadow or a bearish candle, it’s a signal to add to short positions. Stop-loss at 66,000, with the first target at 60,000.

If the price drops directly, breaks below 62,000 with increased volume, you can follow the trend and short again, with the same target.

For those holding short positions now, hold on, set your stop-loss properly, and don’t be scared off by small rebounds.

Finally, one word:

Many are still waiting for 67,000 or even 68,000 to short. Wake up. The macro environment has changed; once the FOMC rate hike expectations start pricing in, it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to organize a decent rebound.

65,000 is very likely the ceiling for this rally.

60,000 is not the end, just a signpost, waiting for the third break below.

Brothers and sisters, let’s wait and see the third test of breaking down and heading toward 50K.