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Analyst: Strategy is still far from forced liquidation; comparing STRC’s de-pegging to UST’s de-pegging and LUNA’s crash seems somewhat excessive.
The similar product SATA still remains above $99 this week. SATA has not de-pegged, while STRC has, indicating that this selling pressure is more aimed at Strategy rather than a flaw in the tool itself. So, it’s more like a re-pricing of leverage and credit, compounded by the depletion of cash reserves and the amplified sell signals, leading to liquidity tightening; but definitely not a liquidation crisis.
Strategy is still far from forced liquidation; only at the current price has the flywheel truly come to a halt. Next, the price path of BTC will determine whether this is just a mid-term pause or the start of a spiral. However, comparing STRC de-pegging to the last cycle’s UST de-pegging/LUNA crash, this narrative of a death spiral seems somewhat exaggerated. If BTC price rebounds, the equity ATM reopens, and the flywheel can restart; it can also use common stocks to pay dividends and rebuild cash reserves; this would address the most dangerous factor in STRC’s discount.