Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,430 on May 10 remains ongoing, but recent significant reversal signals have appeared. After panic selling to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred on June 7–8, reaching 64,186. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" saw prices plummet from 63,454 straight down to 60,800. The morning of June 10 continued to decline to 60,828 (a new low since the rebound), but in the afternoon, a V-shaped rebound brought it back to 62,747. On June 11, a stronger upward push pushed the high to 63,775. June 12–13 saw high-level oscillation, and June 14–15 attempted another rally, reaching 67,225. However, from June 16–19, there was a four-day continuous plunge, with a crash to 62,238 on June 18, a slight rebound to 62,894 on June 19, and stabilization with a close at 63,420 on June 20–21. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the lows since June 5 (59,095 → 60,828 → 62,238) are rising, indicating weakening downward momentum.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): From June 15–21, the movement shows a "rise and fall + deep correction + stabilization rebound" oscillation. Starting June 15, the price steadily climbed from 65,714 to a high of 67,254. On June 16, oscillation peaked at 66,928. Beginning June 17, a correction started, with panic sell-off on June 18 from 64,420 down to 62,238. A slight rebound occurred on June 19 to 62,254, and from June 20–21, a stabilization rebound reached 63,750. The short-term high has moved down from 67,254 (6/15) to 66,928 (6/16) → 65,507 (6/16 close) → 64,038 (6/17) → 62,238 (6/18 low). The short-term low has moved down from 65,362 (6/15) to 62,238 (6/18) → 62,254 (6/19) → 62,500 (6/20). The high point is decreasing, but the low point is rising, indicating a shift from a downtrend to oscillation.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend remains downward, but downward momentum is significantly weakening (low points rising). The short-term trend is shifting from decline to oscillation. The stabilization rebound on June 21 has surpassed the June 19 close of 62,894, returning the market to a more bullish oscillation state. The key resistance zone is 64,500–65,000 (near the pre-crash high of 64,038 on June 17). If prices break through this level effectively, the short-term downtrend may reverse; if the rebound is blocked at 64,500 and prices fall below 62,500, the downtrend continues, targeting the 60,828–59,095 range.
2. Chan Theory
Pattern Structure: On the daily chart, multiple valid top and bottom divergence patterns are marked.
Top Divergence: Appeared at 82,430 (May 10), 82,006 (May 14), 67,243 (June 15), 66,928 (June 16), etc. The top divergence on June 15–16 shows a significant downward shift from around 82,000 to 67,000, indicating the bearish force is recovering.
Bottom Divergence: Appeared at 59,095 (June 5), 60,828 (June 10), 62,238 (June 18), 62,254 (June 19), 63,100 (June 21), etc. The bottom divergence from June 18–21 shows a notable upward shift from around 59,000 to 62,000–63,000, indicating bullish momentum is recovering.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the bottom divergence at 60,828 to the top divergence at 67,243 (June 15), a very strong upward stroke (~6,415) was formed. Then from 67,243 down to 62,238 (June 18), a downward stroke (~5,005) was formed, about 78% of the upward stroke, indicating a strong correction. Currently, from the 62,238 bottom divergence, no new upward stroke termination signal has appeared.
Central Zone: Between 62,800–63,200, the K-lines from June 19–21 are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone (per Chan Theory). The current price of 63,420 is inside this zone, leaning towards the upper boundary, indicating the zone is being constructed. In the 66,000–66,500 range, dense K-line activity on June 14–16 formed an upward central zone, but the sharp decline on June 17–18 broke this zone, accelerating the downtrend. In the 63,000–65,000 range, dense activity on June 11–14 formed a central zone, with the current price approaching its lower boundary.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke is very strong (+6,415), but the downward stroke is also strong (-5,005), showing fierce battle between bulls and bears. Currently, the market is in a low-volatility oscillation after the downward stroke extension, with central zone ③ under construction. Short-term focus is on whether an effective top divergence can form near 63,420; if so, the upward stroke may end. If prices break through 64,500 directly, the upward stroke extends, risking a push towards 65,000–67,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on daily wave structure, the movement since the high of 82,430 on May 10 is divided into typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound + correction" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,430 down to 75,826 (May 26), about -6,604.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,826 up to 77,280 (May 26), about +1,454.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 77,280 down to 66,704 (June 2), about -10,576.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,704 up to 74,154 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,154 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,059.
A Wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,186 (June 8), about +5,091.
B Wave (Correction): From 64,186 down to 60,828 (June 10), about -3,358. The B wave correction is about 65.9% of A wave, a typical retracement.
C Wave (Expansion): From 60,828 up to 67,225 (June 15), about +6,397. The current C wave is about 125.6% of A wave; if equal in length, target ~65,919; if 1.618 times A, target ~68,356.
C Wave correction: From 67,225 down to 62,238 (June 18), about -4,987, a deep correction (~77.9% of C wave rise).
Wave conclusion: The market is in a deep correction phase after the ABC rebound C wave. The C wave is very strong (+6,397), but the correction is also significant (-4,987). If the correction stabilizes near 62,500 and then breaks above 67,225, the C wave extends, targeting 68,000–70,000. If prices fall below 62,000 and continue downward, the C wave fails, and a new downward impulsive wave begins, targeting 60,000–59,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 18, a highly negative volume-price pattern appeared. During the panic sell-off, volume surged sharply; during the rebound, volume contracted; and during the late decline, volume remained high. The heavy volume decline was characterized by dense, increasing volume candles, indicating strong bearish force. From June 19–21, a pattern of shrinking volume with stabilization and mild rebound emerged, showing bearish exhaustion.
Key volume-price nodes:
- June 15: A volume surge with a bullish candle (volume 32.9B), from 65,714 to 66,315, body 601, confirming bullish attack.
- June 16: A volume decline with a bearish candle (volume 25.1B), from 66,289 oscillating to 65,601, body -688, indicating high-level selling pressure.
- June 18: An extremely high-volume bearish candle (volume 30.4B), from 64,420 down to 62,896, body -1,524, confirming explosive bearish force and panic selling.
- June 19: A shrinking volume bullish candle (volume 24B), from 62,883 slightly up to 62,894, body 11, confirming bearish exhaustion.
- June 20: A moderate volume bullish candle (volume 26B), from 62,894 rebound to 63,514, body 620, indicating bulls are testing the market.
- June 21: A shrinking volume consolidation (volume 22B), from 63,514 slightly down to 63,420, body -94, confirming balanced forces.
Recent 7-day volume-price pattern: From 67,254 oscillating down to 62,238, then rebounding to 63,420, with a pattern of "massive volume decline + rebound with shrinking volume + stabilization with moderate volume," indicating the market is waiting in the 62,500–63,500 zone for direction.
Volume-price conclusion: The massive volume during the June 18 crash indicates very strong bearish force. The subsequent shrinking volume with stabilization and mild rebound (June 19–21) shows bearish exhaustion. Key observation points: If the rebound near 64,500–65,000 shows volume stagnation, the C wave rebound may end; if prices break below 62,000 with volume, a downward impulsive wave may begin.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: Over the last 7 days (June 15–21), the Point of Control (POC) is at 63,533, the area with the densest trading, forming the current key value zone. The current price of 63,420 is slightly below POC, indicating a slight negative divergence between market value and actual price, with bears having a slight advantage.
Current analysis: Price at 63,420 is about 113 below POC, placing it in the below-value zone but with minor deviation. In order flow theory, being below POC suggests short-term selling dominance, and the market is shifting from a premium to a discount state. The current price is approaching the POC, with significant resistance around 63,500.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 67,000–67,500: Upper resistance HVN (dense trading after the rebound high on June 15, forming strong resistance)
- 65,000–66,000: Secondary resistance HVN (dense trading on June 14–16, forming resistance)
- 63,500–64,000: Core HVN (around POC, current resistance zone)
- 62,000–62,500: Support HVN (after the crash on June 18–19, large volume support zone)
- 60,500–61,000: Strong support HVN (after the crash on June 10, large volume support zone)
Delta analysis: During the June 18 crash, Delta sharply turned negative (~-5 billion), confirming active selling. During June 19–21 stabilization and mild rebound, Delta slightly turned positive (~+5–1B), indicating bearish exhaustion. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered to near zero, showing buying power is returning, and selling pressure is weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price below POC 63,533, short-term sellers are slightly dominant. Resistance at 64,500 and 65,000 HVNs; if Delta remains positive with volume breakthroughs at these levels, upward movement toward 67,000 is possible. If Delta stays negative and prices fall below 62,500, the C wave may fail.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 82,430 (high point), 78,003 (May 26 rebound high), 74,154 (May 31 rebound high), 67,225 (June 15 rebound high)
- Key Resistance: 65,600 (June 16 close), 64,500 (psychological level), 64,038 (pre-crash high on June 17), 63,775 (June 11 rebound high)
- Key Support: 63,000 (psychological level), 62,500 (June 20 low), 62,238 (June 18 crash low), 61,500 (June 11 morning low), 60,828 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
- June 15: Long upper shadow bullish candle (body 601, upper shadow 941), from 65,714 to 66,315, high at 67,254, indicating bullish momentum with high resistance, forming a "shooting star" warning.
- June 18: Long body bearish candle (body -1,524, lower shadow 234), from 64,420 to 62,896, indicating strong bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 19: Doji (body 11), from 62,883 to 62,894, indicating market indecision.
- June 20: Long lower shadow bullish candle (body 620, lower shadow 156), from 62,894 to 63,514, showing bulls starting to recover, forming a "hammer" pattern.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: In a downward channel (connecting 67,254, 65,507, 64,038, 62,238), but stabilization on June 20–21 suggests possible breakout.
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 (82,430) persists, but the rising low since June 5 (59,095) indicates weakening downward momentum.
Price action conclusion: Currently in a low-volatility oscillation zone after a sharp decline. 63,500 is the key dividing line: a break above suggests trend reversal toward bullishness; a rejection and fall below 62,500–62,000 indicates continuation of the downtrend.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with weakening downward momentum (higher lows), shifting from decline to oscillation, with key levels at 64,500 (up) and 62,500 (down). Chan Theory shows strong upward strokes (+6,415) and strong downward strokes (-5,005), with the market in a low position after downward extension, with central zone ③ under construction. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline, with ABC rebound and C wave (~6,397) completed, entering a deep correction (~4,987). Volume-price signals show a massive volume during the crash, followed by shrinking volume with stabilization and mild rebound, indicating exhaustion of bears. Order flow shows the POC at 63,533, with price below it, Delta recovering from negative to near zero, suggesting short-term bearish dominance but potential for reversal if volume and Delta turn positive. Price action shows "shooting star," "bearish engulfing," "doji," and "hammer" patterns, with a short-term oscillation bias but key resistance at 63,500.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price stabilizes near 62,500–63,000 with decreasing volume, forming a bottom divergence and Delta turning positive, consider trying long positions targeting 64,500 → 65,000, with a stop loss around 61,800.
- Bearish scenario: If the rebound near 64,500–65,000 forms a top divergence with volume increasing downward, confirming failure of the C wave rebound and the start of a downward impulsive wave, consider short positions targeting 62,500 → 61,000, with a stop loss around 65,500.
Current state: Price at 63,420 is in a low-volatility zone after a sharp decline, leaning towards oscillation. Wait for a confirmed break above 64,500 to reverse the trend or a break below 62,000 to continue the decline before entering positions.