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Salah may lead the Pharaohs of Egypt to their first win—Little Fortune’s World Cup betting diary 🔥

In the second round of Group G at the 2026 USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup, Egypt will take on New Zealand. After the first round, all four teams in Group G are level on 1 point—Egypt drew 1-1 with Belgium, and New Zealand drew 2-2 with Iran—so the qualification picture is anything but clear. But it is precisely in this crucial showdown that I firmly believe the Pharaohs’ squad will secure their first-ever win in the World Cup final tournament. Here is my reasoning.

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1. A 11-fold difference in value: this is not a matchup at the same level

When you open both teams’ rosters, the gap is startling. Egypt’s total squad value exceeds 300 million euros. They have two front-line attackers in the 50 million range—Salah and Marmoush—plus Arsenal midfielder Elneny anchoring the midfield. With five major-league level players across each line, every sector is covered. But what about New Zealand? Their entire squad value is under 30 million euros. Their biggest-name player is 34-year-old Chris Wood. Most other players play in the Australian A-League, the English Championship, or even lower-tier leagues. Their midfield creativity is severely lacking, and their attacking options are relatively single-minded.

This is not arrogance—it is cold, hard reality. When Egypt’s Salah faces top Premier League defenders at Liverpool, New Zealand’s back line is still struggling with how to limit an Australian-league-level striker. The gulf in quality will not be closed just because of a draw.

2. Psychological edge from past head-to-heads: Egypt has never lost

In official matches between the two teams, they have met 3 times in total, and Egypt has stayed unbeaten with 1 win and 2 draws. The most recent meeting was a friendly in March 2024, which ended 0-0. While the scoreline may not look dramatic, the four words “has never lost” carry enormous psychological weight on the high-pressure stage of the World Cup.

New Zealand’s World Cup record is even more bleak—7 matches without a win, 4 draws and 3 losses. They led Iran twice in the first round, only to be pegged back twice, exposing a fatal weakness: after taking the lead, they cannot manage the game and their resilience under pressure is insufficient. And Egypt—what about them? In the first match against Belgium, ranked in the world’s top ten, Egypt not only scored first but also limited Lukaku and De Bruyne for most of the match. In the end, they dropped points only due to an own goal. That kind of “regret of almost beating a strong opponent” is precisely the biggest motivation.

3. Salah: the X factor that determines the direction of the match

In the first round against Belgium, Salah played with a minor injury but still delivered a key assist, helping Ashour score with a long-range shot. After the match, he stated publicly that his physical condition was good and that there was no problem playing against New Zealand. That means New Zealand’s back line will face a super forward who has scored 30+ goals in a single Premier League season.

Salah’s inward-cut shots, runs to beat the offside trap, and one-on-one breakthroughs are nightmares for every New Zealand defender. New Zealand’s defensive system is known for relying on physical duels and intercepting from the air. But when facing a player like Salah—who is flexible, fast, and good at creating chances in tight spaces—their turning speed and awareness in helping defense will be fully exposed. More importantly, Salah’s presence will draw the attention of at least two New Zealand defenders, creating huge attacking space for teammates such as Marmoush and Ashour.

4. Tactical restraint: Egypt’s possession-and-control style is tailor-made to deal with New Zealand’s roughness

Egypt is a team with extremely strong tactical discipline. Over their last 5 matches, their average possession rate reached 62%, and their midfield passing success rate is as high as 88%. Their possession-and-control system has been refined over many years, and the players have excellent on-field chemistry. New Zealand’s tactical core, on the other hand, has only two things: aerial bombardment and set pieces. In their last 5 matches, 40% of New Zealand’s goals came from set pieces, while their creativity in open play has been extremely limited.

When Egypt’s possession-and-control system meets New Zealand’s long-ball bypass-and-lob style, the match tempo will fall entirely under Egypt’s control. Egypt only needs to patiently circulate the ball in midfield to wear down New Zealand’s stamina and patience, then use a direct through ball from Salah or Marmoush to tear open the defense. With New Zealand defenders constantly shifting laterally and covering, their energy drain will be far greater than Egypt’s. And once their physical condition collapses—often happening after the 60th minute—that is exactly the best window for Egypt to break the deadlock.

5. Hunger for victory: Egypt has waited far too long

In the history of World Cup final tournaments, Egypt has already gone 8 matches without a win. They are only one step away from their first-ever victory. After leading Belgium in the first round, they were forced to settle for a draw. The entire squad is holding in a sense of resolve. After the match, head coach Hassan said, “We are the side closer to victory.” In those words there is regret, and also unwillingness.

And what about New Zealand? After drawing Iran in the first match and taking their World Cup team’s 2nd point in history, they can already be said to have completed their task. For a team with a poor World Cup historical record, one draw is enough to satisfy them. But satisfaction often means a decline in motivation. When Egypt takes the field with a burning desire for their first win, New Zealand may find themselves down a step psychologically.