**Key Technical Range (Bull-Bear Watershed)**

**Daily chart level (Medium-term trend leaning bearish)**

Strong resistance above: **$65,000—$65,800** (MA20, short-term trapped zone; if it cannot rally with volume and stabilize, the rebound ends); medium-term heavy pressure at **$67,000** and **$70,000**

Strong support below: **$62,000—$62,500** (the center of this round’s consolidation; if it breaks, a second retest of the **$60,000** level follows); ultimate support at the previous low of **$59,000**

Indicators: Price is running below the medium- and long-term moving averages, below the MACD zero line; the green bars are shrinking slightly with no golden cross; the Bollinger Bands are opening downward; the downward channel remains unchanged—only weak consolidation and repair

**4-hour short-term (Intraday oscillation pattern)**

Short-term resistance: **$64,500—$64,800**; selling pressure is clearly present when price rallies into the area

Short-term support: **$63,000**; the intraday bulls’ defense bottom line—if it breaks, price quickly returns to weakness

RSI stays in a weak range below **40**; there is no obvious overbought condition, and rebound momentum is limited

**Intraday Market Outlook**

1. **Optimistic scenario (30%)**
US-Iran negotiations release signals of easing; funds return slightly; a breakout above **$65,000** with increased volume occurs; upward targets are **$66,500—$67,000**; however, the **$67,000** trapped positions are thick, and without ETF capital support it is difficult to sustain a continued breakout.

2. **Neutral baseline (60%, highest probability)**
A narrow-range choppy grind between **$62,800—$64,800**; repeated up-and-down “needle” moves to wash out traders; volume shrinking while waiting for guidance from the evening US dollar index and US bond data; both bulls and bears lack one-sided momentum.

3. **Pessimistic scenario (10%)**
No substantive progress in negotiations; risks in the Middle East re-emerge; combined with rising US bond yields; if **$62,000** support is broken, price quickly drops to the key psychological level of **$60,000**.
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