Technical Outlook: XRP Remains Below Major Resistance — Relief Rally Still Lacks Confirmation

XRP continues to trade under sustained bearish pressure despite holding above the key macro support region around $1.00–$1.12. After breaking down from its descending structure, price has attempted several short-term recoveries but continues to trade beneath all major moving averages and key Fibonacci resistance levels.

Although momentum has improved slightly from recent lows, the broader trend remains bearish until XRP can reclaim higher resistance zones and confirm a market structure shift.

📈 EMA Structure (Bearish)

20 EMA: $1.186

50 EMA: $1.259

100 EMA: $1.355

200 EMA: $1.562

Price remains below all major EMAs ❌

20 EMA continues acting as immediate dynamic resistance

50 & 100 EMA are capping recovery attempts

200 EMA remains the major long-term trend barrier

👉 XRP must reclaim the EMA cluster before any sustainable bullish reversal can be confirmed.

📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure

Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.5656

Long-term descending trendline remains intact

Recent rebound remains corrective within the broader downtrend

Lower highs continue to dominate overall market structure

👉 Any relief rally could target:

$1.18 → Immediate resistance / 20 EMA

$1.26 → 50 EMA resistance

$1.36 → 100 EMA resistance

$1.56 → 0.236 Fibonacci resistance

👉 Failure to hold current support could expose:

$1.12 → Near-term support

$1.00 → Critical macro support

Below $1.00 → Higher probability of another liquidity sweep

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

Previous selloff swept significant sell-side liquidity below range support

Market structure remains bearish with lower highs still intact

Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain overhead and unfilled

Recent bounce lacks strong displacement and appears corrective

No confirmed bullish market structure break has occurred

👉 Smart money flow continues favoring sellers until XRP reclaims key resistance levels and invalidates the current bearish structure.

📉 RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 41.4

Recovering from oversold territory ⚠️

Momentum has improved compared with recent lows

Buyers are showing early participation

Trend confirmation remains absent

👉 RSI supports the possibility of a short-term relief rally but does not yet confirm a major trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

$1.18 → 20 EMA

$1.26 → 50 EMA

$1.36 → 100 EMA

$1.56 → Fibonacci resistance

$1.56–$1.57 → 200 EMA region

🟢 Support

$1.12 → Current support zone

$1.00 → Major macro support

Below $1.00 → Increased downside risk

📌 Final Outlook

XRP remains locked in a broader downtrend after months of persistent weakness and continues trading beneath all major EMA and Fibonacci resistance levels.

✅ Reclaim & hold above $1.18–$1.26 → opens recovery path toward $1.36 → $1.56

✅ Break above $1.56 → significantly improves medium-term market structure

❌ Loss of $1.00 support → increases the probability of another move into lower liquidity zones

👉 Overall structure remains bearish. While RSI continues to recover and price is attempting to stabilize above cycle lows, bulls must reclaim the $1.18–$1.26 resistance region before any larger recovery scenario becomes credible. Until then, sellers remain in control of the broader trend.

$XRP ‌