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Tonight, I took a quick look at the Netherlands versus Sweden, and I bet on a draw.
Netherlands vs Sweden, 58% vs 21%, draw 24%.
165,000 $ZAMA prize pool, over twenty thousand participants.
I took a look and bet on a draw.
Someone in the group asked: The Netherlands' win rate is almost 60%, are you betting on a draw?
I said: Hmm.
He asked: Why?
I said: No particular reason. Just feel like an upset is coming.
Yesterday I bet on Haiti and lost. Today I bet on a draw and keep gambling.
Anyway, points don’t matter, if I lose I keep signing in to accumulate. If I hit, that’s a big win. Take a risk, turn a bicycle into a motorcycle.
24% seems low, but in football, anything can happen. The Netherlands are strong, but Sweden isn’t weak. The chance of a draw is higher than what the market suggests. Plus, a 24% return rate is much higher than the Netherlands, and winning doubles the points. If I lose, I lose; after betting, I just toss it aside. We’ll see the result at 1 a.m. tomorrow. If it’s a draw, I get a chicken leg; if I lose, pretend it never happened.
The day of an upset will come, and it will be my turn.