AXS has moved again. Over the past day, it gained more than twenty points, jumping from $0.94 to $1.17 in one go, with trading volume also increasing significantly. In the group, people are again shouting "bottoms are in." On the news front, Axie Infinity just launched Terrariums V1 and is giving bAXS rewards, looking quite lively.

But if you ask me, just one sentence: Don’t take it seriously.

Let’s extend the timeline a bit—November 2021, AXS hit a high of $165. At that time, "play-to-earn" was like a myth; a village in the Philippines relied on raising Axies for a living, NFT sales reached tens of billions of dollars, and the entire crypto world was crazy about this game. AXS was the banner back then, everyone believed it could change the world.

And now? $1.17.

Fallen from $165 to just over a dollar, a drop of 99.3%. If you invested 10,000 yuan, now you only have seventy, is that investing? That’s just giving away money. Even more brutal, this isn’t even the bottom—the crypto world has no concept of “dropped enough,” only “how much more can it fall?”

Someone might counter: “It’s rising now, right? With news support and volume coming out.” That’s true; technical indicators do show short-term buying strength, MACD just had a golden cross, and volume is several times larger than usual. But you need to see clearly—this kind of rally is a typical news-driven pulse—project team releases an update, pulls a wave, attracts follow-up traders, then what? No follow-through, and it slowly pulls back. I’ve seen this script too many times with AXS; it’s always like this.

What’s truly deadly is the fundamentals.

The daily active users of Axie Infinity were still 2.7 million in summer 2022, but this year, it’s dropped to just over five thousand. What does five thousand mean? Even a slightly popular web game has more players. A game with 5,000 daily active users issuing a token, with its market cap still there—does that seem reasonable? No one is playing the game anymore, so where’s the token’s value anchored? Relying on memories?

And then there’s token unlocking. Currently, nearly 40% of AXS tokens are still locked and haven’t been released. These tokens will eventually hit the market, and each unlocking cycle is real selling pressure. If you chase the rally here, early investors and the team are waiting to cash out—they might have bought in at a few cents. What do you have to compare with them?

There’s also the Ronin bridge, which was hacked for over $600 million in 2022. Although some was recovered later, the on-chain ecosystem is basically dead. If a gaming chain can’t even keep its own players, how much is its token worth?

I know many will say, “Last bull market, it also fell, but it still came back up.” But this time is different. Last time, Axie was still the leader in the sector, and funds bet on its future. Now, the entire GameFi sector is cooling off; new players aren’t coming in, old players are leaving, AXS has no new stories or new traffic. What can support the next bull run?

Honestly, these tokens are classic “has-been stars.” Once glorious, now only memories remain. Short-term funds take advantage of news to make a quick buck, then run. If you chase in, you’re just paying for them. After falling 99%, it can fall another 99%—there’s no shortage of precedents. SLP dropped from 0.36 to 0.002; it’s also part of the Axie ecosystem. Has it recovered now?

So, this rise in AXS is just for show. If you’re thinking of buying with real money, I advise you to think twice. Don’t gamble your hard-earned money on a story that’s likely to never come back. $AXS ‌#我的Gate交易时刻