Next Week’s Macroeconomic Outlook: PCE Data and Fed Officials’ Remarks Attract Attention; Gold’s Pressure Has Not Been Eased Yet

June 20 news: This week, global market sentiment saw repeated fluctuations. The main trading focus alternated between easing geopolitical risks and hawkish policy signals from the Federal Reserve, and earlier optimistic market sentiment was unable to continue.

Under multiple pressures—including a stronger U.S. dollar, rising real yields on U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed’s more hawkish tone—spot gold has continued to weaken, closing lower for the third consecutive week, making it one of the most visibly pressured assets this week.

Looking ahead to next week, the market will still face multiple key variables and disturbances, with overall uncertainty remaining high. On one hand, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire situation still has uncertainties, and Middle East geopolitical risks will continue to affect global market sentiment and asset pricing;

On the other hand, as multiple key U.S. economic data releases come out and many Fed officials deliver speeches in quick succession, this will become the core factor driving market direction. Among them, the core PCE inflation data is especially crucial.

Next week will have a dense schedule of global macro data and events, covering key economic indicators from both China and abroad, as well as developments from the Federal Reserve. In China, the one-year Loan Prime Rate will be released on Monday;

In the United States, on Tuesday, ADP employment data, and the preliminary figures for manufacturing and services PMI will be released in sequence. On Wednesday, API and EIA crude oil inventory data will be disclosed;

On Thursday, a major data window arrives, with the concentrated release of the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims, the final Q1 GDP annualized quarterly growth rate, May durable goods orders data, and market highly watched data such as the May core PCE price index and personal income and personal expenditures;

At the same time, the Fed will also publish the results of its annual bank stress tests on Thursday. On Friday, multiple FOMC voting members will deliver public speeches one after another, releasing the latest policy inclination.

At present, the core PCE inflation data that the Fed values most will become the biggest focus for the market next week. Previously, the market once expected the Fed to reduce the impact of a short-term inflation rebound, but that expectation appears to be changing.

In addition, the newly appointed Fed chair, Wash, has shown a hawkish stance, firmly committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. This shift in position has led the market to reassess the inflation outlook and the path of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the market is also closely watching how the Q1 PCE data performs and how Fed officials will speak next week, to judge the Fed’s future policy direction.

# Economic Data