The US-Iran-Switzerland talks remain deadlocked. US Special Envoy Witterkoff is en route to Switzerland, while President Trump’s son-in-law, Kushner, has arrived and is on standby. Iranian Foreign Minister Alaraji plans to travel to Switzerland before June 20, but his schedule remains uncertain. The talks previously scheduled for June 19 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, have been canceled.

The key sticking point for restarting negotiations is the ceasefire in Lebanon. Alaraji has made it clear that a ceasefire in Lebanon is crucial to Iran and is a decisive factor in the negotiations. Although Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire at 4 p.m. on the 19th, the Israeli military retains the “retaliate when attacked” clause. More importantly, after the ceasefire, the Israeli military continued airstrikes in multiple areas across Lebanon, resulting in at least 47 deaths and 97 injuries that day. The strength of enforcement of the ceasefire agreement remains in doubt.

Meanwhile, the mediators will hold a meeting in Egypt on June 21. Overall, the negotiations have moved from the “postponed” stage to the stage of “personnel being in place and negotiating conditions,” with around June 23 still a key observation window.

Relevant data shows that if BTC falls below $60,400, the total liquidation of long positions will reach $1.13 billion. Conversely, if it breaks above $66,000, the liquidation intensity for short positions will reach $765 million.

With negotiations starting smoothly, it is favorable for price correction.

If the ceasefire breaks down again and causes negotiations to be put on hold further, market uncertainty will rise again.

Keep a close watch on whether Iranian Foreign Minister Alaraji departs as scheduled and whether negotiations can be launched around June 23. $BTC