#我的Gate交易时刻 Plunge 48%! Bitcoin hangs on the edge of the $60k cliff, is there still hope for cryptocurrencies?

Total crypto market cap shrank from $3.5 trillion to $2.19 trillion, BTC is just one step away from the psychological barrier, even Saylor has "broken discipline" and sold coins...

1. This is not an ordinary correction
In June 2026, Bitcoin's price hovered around $61,620 — a decline of over 51% from the all-time high of $126,000.
By comparison, during the worst of the 2022 bear market, BTC dropped from $69,000 to $15,500, a retracement of about 77%. We haven't reached that level yet, but the direction is concerning.
On June 3, the market experienced an $1.86 billion long liquidation — with longs accounting for $1.35 billion. This was a stampede, not just normal profit-taking.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (FGI) fell to 18 — in the "extreme fear" zone, just slightly above the all-time low of 5 on February 6.
What’s happening in the market can be summarized in one sentence: The bull market engine (ETFs, rate cut expectations, institutional funds) is all operating in reverse, and new buyers have not appeared.

2. The first blow: The Fed is no longer cutting rates
This is the heaviest boulder pressing down on the market.
The June Federal Reserve statement removed the key phrase "progress toward 2% inflation target." Two voting members openly stated that the possibility of a rate cut in Q3 is virtually zero, and may even be delayed until 2027.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded by 18 basis points in three days, reaching 4.82%.
What does this mean for cryptocurrencies? Simple — for institutional investors, when the risk-free return is 4.82%, why gamble on Bitcoin with 80% volatility?
The underlying logic of the 2024-2025 bull market is "rate cuts and liquidity injection → risk assets surge." Now, this logic is not only broken but operating in reverse — the market is even discussing "rate hikes."

3. The second blow: Record ETF withdrawals
This is a more worrying signal than price movements.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced over 10 consecutive days of net outflows, with a weekly maximum of $3.4 billion (the week of June 3) — the largest single-week outflow in history.
Combined with outflows from European crypto ETPs, over $4.2 billion has been withdrawn from crypto ETFs in three weeks. Why is this more terrifying than normal selling? Because the mechanism of Bitcoin ETFs is: when investors redeem shares, authorized participants (APs) must sell the corresponding amount of BTC in the spot market to raise funds. This means every redemption creates mechanical selling pressure.
More critically, outflows are not concentrated in a specific product — BlackRock’s iBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC — the entire industry is fleeing. It’s not a problem with a single fund; it’s a loss of confidence in the entire institutional crypto sector.
Total ETF assets under management fell from $104 billion to about $94 billion, evaporating $10 billion.

4. The third blow: The invisible ghost of US-Iran war
On February 28, 2026, the US-Iran conflict erupted. That day, BTC plummeted, with $515 million in long positions forcibly liquidated.
A brief ceasefire in April gave the market a breather, and BTC temporarily rebounded above $80K, but this relief was short-lived — by the end of May, the ceasefire broke down.
The conflict continued to push up oil prices → fueling inflation → closing the last window for Fed rate cuts.
On June 18, the US lifted the maritime blockade, and US stocks rose accordingly. But the crypto market hardly followed — market confidence in crypto is no longer based on geopolitical easing.

5. The fourth blow: Demand has disappeared
CryptoQuant’s on-chain data reveal a more fundamental truth: it’s not oversupply, but a lack of buyers.
Realized Cap (a metric measuring actual invested capital) dropped from $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion — $40 billion in funds have exited.
Coinbase Premium (a measure of US institutional buying power) turned persistently negative — US institutional buyers have vanished.
Funds are flowing entirely into US stocks’ AI sector — S&P 500 is hitting new highs, crypto is out of favor.
The harsh reality of the current market pattern: it’s not a lack of money, but that all the money has gone into AI stocks, not crypto.

6. The fifth blow: Saylor is selling coins
This is probably the biggest psychological shock.
By late May 2026, Michael Saylor — the most steadfast crypto hodler — sold 32 BTC (about $2.5 million).
Although this only accounts for 0.004% of his total holdings and doesn’t create any substantial selling pressure, the signal is significant — since 2020, Saylor has never sold a single Bitcoin. He always preached "HODL forever," "no selling, no buying, no borrowing." Now he has broken that banner. Even the most committed believers are holding small positions — how will the market interpret this?

7. Two more unresolved threats
MtGox’s ghost: On June 3, the bankrupt exchange MtGox transferred 10,422 BTC (about $739 million) to a new wallet. The repayment deadline is October 2026 — market fears these BTC will eventually be sold in the spot market.
The psychological barrier of $60K: BTC is only 2.7% away from $60k. This is a key psychological and technical support level. Once broken, it could trigger a chain of liquidations. Market strategist Mike McGlone warns: if BTC falls below $64,000, it could head toward $10,000.

8. Where did all the longs go?
Putting all factors together, the answer is very clear:
Fed not cutting or possibly raising rates → deadly
Record ETF outflows → deadly
US-Iran conflict and inflation effects → severe
Institutional demand disappearing → severe
BTC support at $60K at risk → severe
Market sentiment extremely fearful → moderate
Saylor selling signals → moderate
MtGox repayment pressure → moderate
Out of the 7 dimensions, 5 are flashing red, 2 are neutral, 0 are positive.
Our quantitative model’s overall score is 32.4/100 — a "bearish, reduce positions and hedge" signal with medium-high confidence.

9. What’s next?
Short-term (7 days): Continue to test lows. Both technical and sentiment indicators point in the same direction. Once $60K is broken, the next target is around $45K–$50K.
Medium-term (30 days): Low-level consolidation. Institutional fund withdrawals and macro headwinds need time to digest. Even if there’s a rebound, it’s likely to be sold back down.
Long-term (90 days): Recovery and stabilization. On-chain data show long-term holders still account for a high proportion (65%). This is not zeroing out; it’s part of the cycle.