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I can't call it free money, but if you read the resolver, it was close.
The market: “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium.”
It resolves YES only if Iran publicly pledges to halt, suspend, or stop enrichment.
The signed MOU said Iran preserves the status quo and won't advance its program.
That's Iran holding onto what it already has.
Stopping enrichment was never on the page.
By the rules, NO.
The price said YES anyway.
People were FOMOing into YES off the peace headlines: deal signed, war over, so Iran must be done enriching.
Nobody opened the resolution rules.
Overnight, Polymarket posted an official clarification: the MOU does not qualify for YES.
I was content with the outcome before they said a word.
Entry 0.59, now 0.95.
These wins, and a lot of them lately, are sponsored by Anthropic.
I don't have time to read every resolver line by line. Claude does.
I feed it the rules, it shows me where the headline and the resolution disagree, and that gap is the trade.
Most people are sleeping on this.
If you trade for edge and you're not pouring your own knowledge into AI and using it to read the actual mechanics, you're behind — and further behind next month.
This is the gap you either fit into or you don't.
Under 5% of people are profitable on prediction markets.
Most of the time there's no mispricing.
People ape in sure they know how a market resolves, and they don't.
It's all driven by headlines, and headlines make us emotional.
If you don't have a strategy in your bets, you are exit liquidity.