#特朗普称美伊协议须在60天内达成 | Is the boot landing or still hanging in the air? Oil prices have already priced in expectations, and the deadlock risk is greater

The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has been signed, the preliminary navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's oil export restrictions are temporarily eased, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund has also been included. But the nuclear issue has been pushed to a 60-day follow-up negotiation, with details still shrouded in fog.

Is this the "boot landing" or the "boot still hanging in the air"? I see it more as the latter. Oil prices have already incorporated optimistic expectations in advance; if negotiations stall within 60 days, Iran will start playing delaying tactics again, and the rebound in oil prices could likely exceed the previous decline. The energy market fears most is this state of "appearing to make progress but actually unresolved."

Veteran's judgment: These 60 days are a high-risk delaying game. The final deadline set by Trump is right there, and Iran won't easily accept full nuclear restrictions. The market is currently pricing in a "high probability of agreement," but the actual probability might not be that high. If oil prices surge again due to the deadlock, the crypto market will likely bear the brunt. $TRX