I don’t have any $BTC on hand right now, and I’m starting to feel a little restless.

That last wave of rebound topped out around 63,400. In a daze, I opened a 12x long position with an entry price of 64,966. Now $BTC has slid back to 63,157, with an unrealized loss of 43.7 U, and a return of -33.41%.

I woke up from my sleep at around dawn, watching the candlestick chart shrink step by step downward, and I was just numb.

What I was thinking then was: the bad news from the FOMC has already been priced in, so there should be a rebound. I figured I’d buy in here, grab a quick short-term move, and then run. But the market didn’t give me any chance at all—the rebound was a bear-set trap to lure people in, and I just happened to step into it.

Looking back, it’s really both “low skill” and “can’t help but play around.” Even though I could see the fear index hovering around 14, I still insisted on catching the falling knife.

This move taught me that in extreme fear, you can’t rush to buy the dip. The market is killing longs—it isn’t killing volatility.

The bears have laid a net in the 63,400-64,000 range. The rebound is basically just driving the fish back in. Next time you see the fear index hit extreme levels, count to three first, and wait for a volume-based stop-the-fall signal—don’t assume that because it turns red, you’ve found something cheap.

Do you think this drop in $BTC is a false breakdown or a true trend reversal? Chat in the comments.

The FOMC maintained interest rates unchanged, and in the statement it removed the phrase “further adjustments to interest rates.” The dot plot suggests 9 officials expect a rate hike, and Waller has abandoned forward guidance. This piece of news is like a bucket of cold water thrown over risk assets—$BTC breaking below 63,000 is only the beginning.

Next, funds will further shift toward dollar-denominated assets, and the pressure from contract liquidations is still there. The altcoin season may have to wait until the market has digested the panic.
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