The market has formed an extremely pessimistic consensus, and the probability of reaching a temporary enrichment agreement in the short term is very low.


Betting on Iran stopping uranium enrichment before June 30 (Yes) is only 6%, while betting it will not stop (No) is as high as 95%. Funds are overwhelmingly betting that the US and Iran will not reach a phased compromise within the deadline, and a breakdown in negotiations has become the main expectation.
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