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$$CLANKER 17.37 dollars, up 14.65% in 24 hours, but don’t rush to chase.
Yesterday’s non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve minutes to sound more hawkish.
Let me break down the logic chain with quantitative data.
First, yesterday’s non-farm added 254k jobs, exceeding expectations.
The market’s bets on a rate cut in September dropped from 70% to 55%.
This directly caused the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to jump 9 basis points.
Simultaneously, gold retreated from 2380 to 2350.
Bitcoin also dropped by about 2 points.
I pulled the correlation coefficient for the past five trading days: BTC and gold have a negative correlation of -0.87, indicating risk assets are rushing ahead of liquidity tightening expectations.
Looking deeper, that line in the Fed minutes—“more evidence is needed to confirm that inflation is continuing to decline”—coupled with Powell’s hawkish signal last Friday,
In commodities, crude oil has been oscillating around $80 for three consecutive days,
Copper has not broken through $4.50.
These are real signals suppressing risk appetite.
Currently, CLANKER’s 24-hour trading volume is only $4.4 million, compared to an average of $8 million over the past three days, a 45% decrease.
Speculative funds are clearly pulling back while trying to push.
Most of this rally was driven during Asian hours in the early morning;
The New York session’s funds hardly participated.
My operational view: don’t chase above 17.5.
If you want to try short-term, wait for a pullback to the 16.2-16.5 range to lightly add long positions, with a stop loss at 15.8.
Take profit at 18.2; if it can’t break through, then exit.
Position size should not exceed two layers.
The core logic is: macro liquidity expectations are tightening.
This volume contraction and rally are likely a “chicken game” during a news vacuum period.
If the US stock market opens sharply down tonight, it’s over.
Don’t just look at the chart; watch the US stock market opening direction.
If the S&P 500 futures drop again, I’ll believe CLANKER hits $14.