每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0613-0619）

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The information flow is too fast; in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" section extracts these valuable judgment-based contents from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macroeconomic Situation

After Holmium reopens, what trades is the market betting on?

War conflicts have basically shifted entirely from military to negotiation levels. The market is transitioning from "war impact" to "supply recovery."

After the strait reopens, the market is shorting crude oil risk premiums, going long on airlines, cruises, and tourism chains, going long on Asian energy importers, long on bond durations, and shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizers, and chemical chains are also being re-priced.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Ray Dalio: When AI giants dominate the US stock market, I choose not to bet on directions, just do one thing

Technological progress itself does not mean that related stocks are equally attractive. Major technological cycles in history often go through excitement, crowding, volatility, and clearing.

When a few tech companies occupy an increasingly high weight in the index, investors need to be alert to whether they are unconsciously holding high-correlation, high-risk concentrated exposures. Instead of chasing a few leading stocks, a truly more stable approach is to build a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-correlation assets and adjust volatility according to one's risk tolerance.

Crypto 2029: The ultimate prediction of the four-year cycle in the crypto industry

Although the three tracks of perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and asset tokenization are logically sound and market demand has been fully validated, external policy forces outside the industry severely limit development speed.

By 2029, what remains in the public eye is the core product that the crypto industry has been building through multiple speculative cycles—the asset trading market.

Data decoding BTC cycle: Three major bottom signals light up simultaneously, Q4 may be a key turning point?

When BTC is above $120k, everyone is willing to believe it will go higher; but when it falls back near $60k, on-chain valuation, cycle position, long-term holder ratio, and macro variables all point to the bottom zone, the market's most lacking is confidence.

The current zone is closer to a patience, discipline, and confidence-based phased deployment window.

After SpaceX debut: Is $21 trillion market cap still worth chasing?

SpaceX jumped above $150, with its first day market cap settling at $2.1 trillion. Currently, SpaceX's revenue cannot support its huge valuation at all.

Starlink is SpaceX's only profitable business at present. Rocket launches are SpaceX's main selling point.

Besides the mismatch between actual business and valuation, the high proportion of retail IPOs may also be a reason for SPCX's suppressed stock price. Musk released 20-30% of SpaceX's IPO shares to retail investors, and the larger the retail shareholding, the greater the volatility. Retail investors may buy in out of FOMO at any cost, and sell impulsively at the slightest fluctuation. Therefore, retail investors mainly influence volatility, not the final price increase.

For investors interested in SpaceX, the following two time points are particularly important:

Approximately 15 trading days after IPO (expected around July 6-7), SpaceX is highly likely to be included in the Nasdaq, when top funds will buy this stock;

Q2 earnings release of SpaceX (mid to early August).

Getting more expensive is more dangerous? The systemic risks behind SpaceX's valuation surge

Gamma squeeze, where options market makers are forced to buy stocks to hedge, creating a feedback loop that further pushes up the stock price. If SpaceX replicates this path and is driven higher by its narrative strength, limited circulating shares, and Musk's influence, it could evolve from a high-valuation stock into a systemic market variable.

The more dangerous part is indexation and passive investment. When a company's market cap becomes large enough, it gets included in major indices, held passively by ETFs, pension funds, retirement accounts, sovereign funds, and institutional portfolios. At this point, the bubble is no longer just a few traders' risk-taking but enters the long-term asset allocation of ordinary investors. The higher it rises, the more the market cannot avoid it; and the more the market cannot avoid it, the more funds tend to flow into it.

This article discusses a structural paradox in modern capital markets: when market mechanisms can amplify narratives, leverage, and liquidity to the point of overwhelming fundamentals, can "price discovery" still hold?

For those obsessed with altcoins, just go for HOOD

Under multiple favorable conditions, HOOD has recently risen.

For a relatively long period, cryptocurrency-related income has been an important part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price has shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies. Recently, signs indicate Robinhood is breaking free from dependence on crypto business and positively disentangling this correlation. Its stock trading, prediction markets, pre-IPO activities, and new underwriting businesses still have potential to support performance growth.

If the crypto market turns bullish again, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue is likely to explode in tandem, and HOOD can still benefit from industry growth.

Missed the wave of crypto stocks, Korean exchanges forced to "speculate on low-value tokens"

Amid weakening crypto market sentiment and Korean investors shifting to stock trading, Korean exchanges saw collective declines in Q1 2026. They urgently need measures to reverse the downturn. Unlike other overseas exchanges that transform into "all-in-one trading platforms" with a wide range of tokenized stocks, Korean authorities classify tokenized stocks as securities, banning such trading on crypto exchanges. They also prohibit crypto futures, derivatives, or ETF trading.

Korea aims to protect investors, but its regulatory measures now push crypto exchanges into the most speculative corners. With income sources like derivatives, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets all banned, exchanges tend to list attention-grabbing, more speculative "low-value" tokens to boost trading volume.

Web3 & AI

AI version of the shadow banking crisis? $1.8 trillion off-balance-sheet exposure becoming a ticking time bomb in this frenzy

Nearly $1 trillion in procurement commitments, over $800 billion in unexecuted leasing contracts, and hundreds of billions in vendor financing arrangements together constitute about $1.8 trillion off-balance-sheet exposure—liabilities outside the balance sheet that lock in future cash outflows. The market has not yet fully priced in these risks.

Morgan Stanley warns that leverage in mega cloud companies has soared from 0.9x to 1.8x in just two quarters, with capital expenditure growth outpacing revenue and free cash flow growth, and the true impact of depreciation pressures has yet to arrive.

Meanwhile, private credit firms like Apollo and Blackstone are shifting leverage onto supply chains via SPVs (special purpose vehicles), creating highly cyclical, opaque financing structures. If AI commercialization underperforms or corporate clients shift en masse to cheaper alternatives, the fragility of the entire financing chain will be exposed.

World Cup just kicked off, AI models are already "gods" or "failing"

Large models like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Copilot can not only answer "which team is more likely to win" but also provide score predictions, upset probabilities, red card risks, key player performance, and match trend analysis.

For prediction market participants, AI pre-match simulations are becoming another layer of reference beyond odds, news, team data, and market sentiment.

Who is taking a cut of your AI monthly fee? A diagram dissects the supply chain behind the $20 cost

A breakdown of the $20 AI subscription cost shows how it is distributed among model companies, cloud computing, GPUs, electricity, and supply chains.

AI subscriptions incur ongoing inference costs and cannot simply adopt the high-margin assumptions of traditional SaaS.

Related stocks: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, data centers, and power supply chains.

Prediction Markets

The first listed company concept for prediction markets has emerged!

Kalshi announced a partnership with US online broker Robinhood, which will leverage Kalshi to offer prediction market trading to its users, allowing bets on political, economic, sports, and other events. Recently, this relationship has shifted subtly. Robinhood is gradually realizing that what is truly scarce may not be the market itself but the user access it controls. Robinhood holds key resources—distribution capability.

After about half a year of accelerated development, Rothera's product has taken shape, and Robinhood has finally made the almost inevitable move—shifting orders originally flowing to Kalshi into its own control system. Robinhood chose a prime launchpad— the World Cup.

If the past few years' prediction market industry theme was the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi, then the future may turn into a channel war.

Also recommended: "World Cup kicks off, reviewing the 'big wins' and 'big losses' in prediction markets."

CeFi & DeFi

IOSG: Three perpetual mechanisms tested for the first time on SpaceX IPO day

Without a public spot price, how does the market price an asset? This is the core challenge that the Pre-IPO perpetual category needs to solve.

In SpaceX's case, trade.xyz captured about 96.5% of on-chain trading volume, not because oracles are smarter, but due to near-zero funding costs making the trade almost costless, catalyzed by the IPO, and linked to cross-exchange arbitrage via per-share valuation.

However, while Pre-IPO perpetuals excel at handling prices, event handling remains primitive. Corporate actions, especially post-conversion stock splits, have no on-chain channels: trade.xyz has not announced any rebase mechanism, and Ventuals outsourced this to a third-party data provider, which has already had issues (a stale split data caused a 45% market crash). The bottleneck is not price discovery but the "corporate action" processing layer: traditional markets spent a century standardizing it, but on-chain, no one has reconstructed it yet. Whoever can reliably deliver this will fill the last gap between these markets and the ones they aim to replace.

STRC severely de-anchors, what risks is the market pricing?

STRC fell to about $89, with an annualized dividend discount at $11.5, implying a simple current yield of about 12.9%.

Market disagreement lies not in whether Strategy can pay dividends immediately, but in how to price BTC reserves, high-interest financing, on-chain leverage, and competing products.

Related stocks: STRC, MSTR/Strategy, SATA, BTC, Pendle, and related on-chain yield products.

STRC de-anchors 11%, can Strategy's perpetual engine still run?

Market pricing of STRC reflects not only investor attitudes toward a preferred stock but also confidence in Strategy's entire capital operation model.

In Strategy's expanding balance sheet cycle, STRC is not just a financing tool but the strongest engine of the current capital flywheel. Through the cycle of "issuing STRC ➡️ to raise fiat ➡️ to buy BTC ➡️ to increase net assets ➡️ to boost STRC trust," Strategy has built a seemingly infinite capital flywheel. However, its smooth operation depends on STRC maintaining close to $100 face value.

Dividend correction failure indicates that the risk being priced has exceeded the yield of STRC itself. First, some technical factors: recent declines are largely due to arbitrage funds deleveraging and forced selling. Deeper concerns relate to Strategy's liquidity reserves.

Annualized 15%-25%, BlackRock's Bitcoin yield ETF—opportunity or trap?

BITA relies on BlackRock's spot Bitcoin fund IBIT, earning stable option premiums by selling covered calls, sacrificing some upside of Bitcoin's large gains. This yield-oriented Bitcoin fund is designed for investors and institutions seeking steady cash flow, solving the pain point of institutions unable to hold zero-yield assets.

Fund flow will give the final answer. If BITA and IBIT continue to absorb Bitcoin and Bitcoin stabilizes above $65k, it indicates sustained institutional buying; otherwise, if the yield ETF merely diverts existing spot fund capital, the "yield trap" hypothesis will be validated.

Ethereum and scalability

Sharplink CEO: A million Ethereum developers, who can compete?

Ethereum's core advantage is not speed but the largest and most in-depth talent pool; its true moat lies in the long-term ecosystem built on composability, standards, and trusted neutrality. These builders are focusing on scalability and quantum resistance, continuously consolidating Ethereum's position as the default operating system for the financial internet.

Weekly Hotspots Recap

Policy and macro markets

Iran media releases detailed terms of US-Iran memorandum, including reopening of Hormuz seafood and release of $24 billion Iranian frozen funds;

US and Iran announce immediate, permanent cessation of all military actions;

US-Iran agreement reached, crypto and gold surge, oil plummets;

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates as expected but remains hawkish, policy statement significantly changed;

US bipartisan lawmakers jointly propose measures: prohibit presidential pardons or sentence reductions for SBF;

Anthropic: suspends access for foreign citizens to Fable 5 and Mythos 5, Amazon suspected as "behind-the-scenes" trigger for regulatory intervention;

SpaceX acquires Cursor;

Liumei (06658.HK) surges on debut due to pun on "LLM" (large language model) (review);

Opinions and Voices

Arthur Hayes: AI is draining the market, Bitcoin may not reach 100k by year-end;

a16z crypto: Crypto enters the "Show Me" era, shifting from narrative-driven to data-verified;

Strive VP: If Strategy cannot pay STRC dividends, Bitcoin may face extinction;

Institutions, large companies, and top projects

BTTInferGrid builds decentralized AI inference computing network...

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