On June 16th, the Bank of Japan directly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 1%, the highest level since 1995. The reason is that the Iran conflict has caused an energy shock, pushing inflation higher, and the yen has weakened. Officials have explicitly stated they will continue to raise rates if necessary.

This situation is very similar to July-August 2024. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance combined with the BOJ tightening policy greatly increases the risk of a reversal of carry trades (borrowing yen to buy high-yield assets). Once the yen strengthens significantly, global liquidity will be drained, and risk assets, including the entire crypto market, will likely decline first.

Last year, veteran traders almost got caught in that trap, but this time they’ve learned their lesson. Keep a close eye on the yen exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields; if any abnormal signals appear, start unwinding leverage first. Don’t wait for others to shout “unwind,” because it’s already too late. I see the probability as not low, at least over 50%. How do you assess this? #我的Gate交易时刻