Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌
1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,430 on May 10 remains ongoing, but significant changes have recently occurred. After panic selling to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred on June 7–8, reaching 64,186. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" from 63,093 straight down to 60,757. On June 10, it continued to decline to 60,788 (new low since the rebound), but in the afternoon, a V-shaped rebound to 62,788 occurred. On June 11, a stronger upward attack pushed to 63,852. June 12–13 saw high-level oscillation, and June 14–15 again pushed higher to 67,248, but from June 16–19, there was a series of pullbacks, with a crash to 62,201 on June 18, and a slight rebound to 62,894 closing. The medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, but the higher lows since June 5 (59,095 → 60,788 → 62,201) indicate weakening downward momentum.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The movement from June 15–19 shows a typical "rise and fall + deep correction" bearish pattern. On June 15, the market opened at 65,711 and steadily rose to a high of 67,248. On June 16, oscillation peaked at 66,929. Starting June 17, it began to retrace, with a panic crash on June 18 from 64,420 down to 62,201, and a minor rebound on June 19 that failed to recover lost ground. The short-term highs moved from 67,248 (6/15) down to 66,929 (6/16) → 65,600 (6/17) → 64,737 (6/18) → 63,317 (6/19). The lows moved from 65,316 (6/15) down to 65,315 (6/16) → 64,010 (6/17) → 62,201 (6/18) → 62,298 (6/19). Both highs and lows are trending downward, indicating a declining short-term trend.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but the downward momentum is significantly weakening (higher lows). The short-term trend is bearish. The crash on June 18 broke below the key support of 63,852 (the high of the June 11 rebound), returning the market to a bearish state. The immediate resistance zone is around 64,000–65,000 (near the June 17 high of 64,010). If the price can break through this zone effectively, the short-term downtrend may reverse; if the rebound stalls at 64,000 and falls back below 62,000, the downtrend continues, targeting the 60,788–59,095 range.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: On the daily chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractals: Appear at 82,430 (May 10), 82,006 (May 14), 67,248 (June 15), 66,929 (June 16), etc. The top fractals on June 15–16 show a significant downward shift from around 82,000 to 67,000, indicating the bearish force is recovering.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 59,095 (June 5), 60,788 (June 10), 62,201 (June 18), 62,298 (June 19), etc. The bottom fractals on June 18–19 show a notable upward shift from around 59,000 to 62,000, indicating bullish momentum is recovering.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 59,095 to the top fractal at 67,248 (June 15), a very strong upward stroke was formed, with an increase of about 8,153. Then from 67,248 down to 62,201 (June 18), a downward stroke of about 5,047 was formed, with a strength about 62% of the upward stroke, within normal correction range. Currently, from the 62,201 bottom fractal, no new upward stroke termination signal has appeared.
Central Zone: In the 62,000–65,000 range, from June 12–19, K-lines are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 62,894 is inside the central zone, leaning towards the lower boundary, indicating a consolidation phase. In the 64,000–67,000 range, dense K-line activity from June 11–16 has formed an upward central zone, but the crash on June 17–18 broke this zone completely, indicating a phase of accelerated decline after the zone breakdown.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke is very strong (+8,153), but the downward stroke is also strong (-5,047), showing intense battle between bulls and bears. Currently, the market is in a low-volatility oscillation after the downward stroke extension, with no termination signals yet. Short-term focus should be on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 62,201; if so, the downward stroke may end. If the price drops directly below 62,000, the downward extension is likely, with high risk of testing 60,000–59,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on daily wave structure, the movement from the high of 82,430 on May 10 is divided into typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound + correction" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,430 down to 75,826 (May 26), about -6,604.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,826 up to 77,280 (May 26), about +1,454.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 77,280 down to 66,704 (June 2), about -10,576.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,704 up to 74,154 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,154 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,059.
A Wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,186 (June 8), about +5,091.
B Wave (Correction): From 64,186 down to 60,788 (June 10), about -3,398. The B wave correction is about 66.8% of A wave, a typical retracement.
C Wave (Expansion): From 60,788 up to 67,248 (June 15), about +6,460. The current C wave is about 127% of A wave; if equal in length, target around 65,900; if 1.618 times A, about 68,300.
C Wave correction: From 67,248 down to 62,201 (June 18), about -5,047, a deep correction at about 78.1% of C wave rise, typical retracement.
Wave conclusion: Currently in the deep correction phase after the ABC rebound C wave completion. The C wave was very strong (+6,460), but the correction was also significant (-5,047). If the correction stabilizes near 62,000 and resumes upward, breaking 67,248, the C wave may extend with targets around 68,000–70,000; if it falls below 62,000 and continues downward, the C wave fails, and a new downward impulsive wave begins, targeting 60,000–59,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 18, a highly negative volume-price pattern appeared. During the crash, volume surged sharply; during the rebound, volume contracted; during the late decline, volume remained high. The dense volume during the decline indicates strong bearish force.
Key volume-price nodes:
- June 15: A large bullish volume candle (32.9B) from 65,711 to 66,289, confirming bullish initiation.
- June 16: A large bullish volume candle (25.1B) from 66,289 oscillating to 65,601, showing high-level selling pressure.
- June 18: An extremely high-volume bearish candle (30.4B) from 64,420 down to 62,896, confirming explosive bearish force and panic selling.
- June 19: A shrinking volume bullish candle (24B) from 62,883 slightly up to 62,894, indicating bearish exhaustion and market waiting.
Recent 5-day volume-price pattern: From 67,248 oscillating down to 62,894, with "volume surge + rebound contraction," indicating market is waiting for direction in the 62,000–63,000 zone.
Volume-price conclusion: The massive volume during the June 18 crash indicates extremely strong bearish force. The current low-volume consolidation suggests both bulls and bears are resting. Key observation points: If a rebound to 64,000–65,000 shows volume stagnation, it confirms the end of C wave rebound; if volume increases on a decline below 62,000, a downward impulsive wave may be triggered.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 20 days' volume control point (POC) is at 61,684, the area of highest trading density, forming the current key value zone. The current price of 62,894 is slightly above POC, showing a slight positive divergence between market value and actual price, with bulls having a slight advantage.
Current analysis: Price at 62,894 is about 1,210 above POC, in the above-value zone but not far. In order flow theory, being above POC indicates short-term buyers are slightly dominant, and the market is recovering from a deep discount to a slight premium. The current price is approaching POC, with obvious support near 62,000.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 67,000–68,000: Resistance HVN (dense trading area after the rebound high on June 15–16, forming strong resistance)
- 64,000–65,000: Secondary resistance HVN (dense trading area from June 11–14, forming resistance)
- 62,000–63,000: Core support HVN (massive support after the crash on June 18–19)
- 60,500–61,500: Lower support HVN (massive support after the crash on June 10)
- 59,000–60,000: Strong support HVN (massive support after the late May crash)
Delta analysis: During the June 18 crash, Delta sharply turned negative (-5 billion), confirming active selling dominance. On June 19, during low oscillation, Delta slightly turned positive (+0.5 billion), confirming bearish exhaustion. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered to near zero, indicating buying power is resuming, and selling pressure is weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price above POC 61,684, short-term buyers are slightly favored. Resistance at 64,000 and 67,000 HVNs, and if Delta remains positive with volume breakout at these levels, upward movement toward 68,000 is possible; if Delta stays negative and price drops below 62,000, the C wave may fail.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 82,430 (high point), 78,003 (May 26 rebound high), 74,154 (May 31 rebound high), 67,248 (June 15 rebound high)
- Key Resistance: 65,600 (June 16 close), 64,000 (psychological level), 63,852 (June 11 rebound high)
- Key Support: 62,200 (June 18 crash low), 62,000 (psychological level), 61,500 (June 11 early low), 60,788 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
- June 15: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 578, upper shadow 959), from 65,711 to 66,289, peaking at 67,248, indicating bullish momentum but high resistance, forming a "shooting star" warning.
- June 18: A large bearish candle with long body (body -1,524, lower shadow 695), from 64,420 to 62,896, indicating strong bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 19: Doji (body 11), from 62,883 slightly up to 62,894, indicating market indecision.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Downward channel (connecting 67,248, 65,600, 64,420, 62,201)
- Medium-term: The downtrend since May 10’s high of 82,430 is still ongoing, but the higher low since June 5 (59,095) shows weakening downward momentum.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is in a low-volatility oscillation after a crash, with 62,000 as a critical support/resistance level. Breaking below confirms a downtrend targeting 60,000–59,000; holding and breaking above 64,000 suggests continuation of C wave upward, targeting 65,000–67,000.
Overall assessment:
Dow indicates the main trend remains downward but with weakening downward momentum (higher lows). Short-term trend is bearish. Chan shows strong upward stroke (+8,153) but also strong downward stroke (-5,047), with current consolidation in a low position after extension. Elliott confirms a completed five-wave decline, ABC rebound, and C wave completion (+6,460) followed by deep correction (-5,047). Volume-price signals on June 18–19 show massive volume and exhaustion signs. Order flow points to POC at 61,684, with price above POC and Delta MA12 near zero, indicating a slight bullish tilt. Price patterns show "shooting star," "bearish engulfing," and "indecision" candles, with a short-term bias to the downside but key support at 62,000.
Short-term strategy:
- Bullish scenario: If price consolidates near 62,000–62,500 with decreasing volume, bottom fractal formation, and Delta turning positive, consider long positions targeting 64,000 → 65,000, with stop-loss at 61,500.
- Bearish scenario: If a rebound to 64,000–65,000 shows top fractal with volume increase and downward breakout, confirm C wave failure and start of impulsive decline, consider short positions targeting 62,000 → 60,000, with stop-loss at 65,500.
Current state: At 62,894, in a low-volatility zone after the crash, with short-term bias to the downside but watchful of 62,000 support. Wait for a confirmed rebound and resistance at 64,000–65,000 before considering short entries, or wait for a breakout below 62,000 to confirm trend continuation.