A highly consistent consensus has formed in the market: the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all throughout 2026.


The share of funds betting on **0** rate cuts for the entire year is 81%, with odds of only **1.22x**, holding absolute dominance; the share betting on **1** rate cut is just 14%, and betting on **2** rate cuts is only 3%. With **two** cuts, the market has nearly ruled them out.
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