$BTC Bitcoin is currently stuck between 62,000 and 64,000 dollars. From a technical perspective, both ends of this range are extremely important levels. 👀 👉

I sat at my desk this weekend, writing out the entire picture layer by layer. Because what we are seeing in the market now is not just volatility triggered by news, but a deeper structural landscape.
The death cross has lasted for 204 days.
In February 2026, the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average. Since then, this signal has not been resolved. Similar death crosses in 2014, 2017, and 2022, respectively, fell by 46% to 52% before reaching the actual bottom. Just this statistic reveals a lot about the overall landscape.
Currently, the 50-day moving average is around $74,000. The 200-day moving average is about $77,000. To get these two moving averages to cross again, the 50-day must rise to $77,000. The price is currently between $62,000 and $64,000, so we are $15k away from confirming a bullish structure.
This path isn’t very long, but as long as there is sustained buying pressure rather than news-driven sudden surges, it can be overcome.
The 200-week moving average is currently very critical.
This week, the 200-week simple moving average level of $61,800 was briefly broken. This level historically corresponds to the most intense pressure point in the crypto cycle. The December 2018 low was formed at this level. During the COVID crash in March 2020, this level was also tested. Both times, accompanied by strong rebounds.
But this time is different. In those periods, breaking this level was instant and intense, then quickly reversed. Whether it will close above this level is still debated. If the weekly close can stay above $62,000, it can be considered that there was no breakdown of support. If not, analysts point to the next level at $49,000.
The current technical structure includes three scenarios.
First scenario: consolidating between $62,000 and $64,000, waiting for a catalyst. No volume, no big moves. This is the most likely short-term scenario.
Second scenario: if it breaks above $64,200, then $65,700, a short squeeze may occur. Short positions are near a nine-year high. If prices break these levels with increased volume, liquidations will begin, and the market will accelerate. The resistance zone around the 50-day moving average is between $70,000 and $71,900.
Third scenario: if the weekly close falls below $61,800, it may retest $59,130. If it cannot hold there, it will enter the $49,000 scenario. I currently don’t see this as the base case, but I am not ignoring it.
Now I am looking at on-chain charts.
The MVRV Z-score is approaching undervalued territory. The realized price is around $53,600. This reflects the cost basis for most of the market. When prices approach this level, long-term holders tend to enter aggressive accumulation modes, as history shows.
Whales accumulated 125,000 BTC in June. This figure is confirmed by on-chain data. This week, the strategy also included buying. SpaceX added 18,712 BTC to the ranks of institutional holders. These big players bought at the $62,000 level. These signals do not guarantee price movement, but they are important clues for judging direction.
A brief macro landscape:
The Federal Reserve is hawkish. The dot plot hints at rate hikes through 2026. PCE inflation expectations have risen to 3.6%. The dollar is strengthening. Risk appetite is weakening.
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a 31-year high. But the yen did not appreciate as much as expected because the US-Japan interest rate differential remains large.
Oil prices are below $81. If the Iran deal is maintained, energy inflation will decline. If July’s CPI data reflects this effect, the Fed’s tone may change. The Senate is waiting for the “Clarity Act,” targeted for July 4.
How do I interpret this landscape, what am I doing?
The hawkish Fed and the 204-day death cross prevent me from making aggressive buys. I don’t regret this.
But I also see: the 200-week moving average has historically been a buy zone. Whales continue to build positions. Short positions are at a multi-year high, indicating short squeeze potential. Energy inflation—the biggest source of macroeconomic pressure—is moving toward resolution.
These two scenarios coexist. The bearish structure is real, but bullish signals are also real.
Amid this contradiction, my preference is: small positions rather than large. Strict risk management rather than loose stop-losses. Waiting for macroeconomic changes and being ready for them.
$59,130 may be the bottom of this cycle, or it may not. I don’t know. But the range between $61,800 and $64,000 is the last major support zone based on historical data and all factors.
Being in this range is unsettling, but the best opportunities in the market are always hidden in the most unsettling places.
My plan is ready. My positions are aligned with my plan. I am following my signals.
⚠️ Not investment advice.