Analysis of historical patterns shows that the Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly served as a signaling tool rather than a real trade blockade — the "Praying Mantis" operation in 1988, the dispute of 2011–2012, and the 2019 episode all demonstrated the same logic: statements about a blockade are louder than actual naval actions. The discrepancy between the rhetoric of the IRGC and the behavior of the Iranian Foreign Ministry is a classic example of the "two voices" of one system, where the military speaks from a position of strength, and diplomats speak from a position of a deal that the country has already signed and does not want to break due to another country's war.

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