It was fine during the day, but suddenly at night, a single message came through—once again, the Middle East situation has turned messy. People holding positions don’t have a steady hand in their hearts.

This round of rebound is really complicated. $BTC 63,040—up by less than one point. It looks like it’s being held steady, but once the geopolitical issue keeps rearing its head, you immediately lose your confidence.

Earlier, everyone was waiting for the U.S. and Iran to officially sign the memorandum of understanding for reconciliation and risk reduction. But right at the last step, everything changed. Iran postponed it, Pakistan canceled it, and even U.S. Vice President Vance temporarily decided not to go.

The market had been pricing in “stability,” but now it suddenly says “wait a bit longer.” This kind of uncertainty is a direct blow to the futures contract order book.

My position hasn’t been closed yet. Before, I saw the sentiment improving and thought the geopolitical downside had been fully exhausted, so I opened a small $BTC position with a slightly bullish bias. The position size isn’t heavy, but my entry is around 62,800.

Now the price is 63,040, and I’m still in decent unrealized profit, but I’m not as confident as before. Since this hasn’t landed yet, it could keep sticking in another spike at any time.

The funding rate is currently normal, but the panic label on the sentiment indicator has already lit up—showing that some market participants are starting to panic.

When I entered, I thought most of the news had already been digested. Technically, 62,500 also has support, so I felt safe. Looking back now, this geopolitical issue can never truly be “priced in,” because whether they sign, how they sign, and whether they actually implement it afterward are all variables.

This U.S.-Iran memorandum has been electronically signed, but the ceremony hasn’t been held. The lifting of the blockade is also free passage within 60 days, not immediate. That state of “effective but not implemented” is the one most likely to make the order book flip around repeatedly.

The way I see it, in this kind of macro uncertainty, the biggest fear in contracts is “expectation reversal.” The reason it rose before was because the expectation was reconciliation. Now that it’s hanging in the air, funds will retreat—or even turn to shorting in the opposite direction.

Next time I run into a similar situation, I’ll wait until the official ceremony is over and the execution details are confirmed before I adjust my position. Before the information has fully landed, the market is only dancing to emotions.

Do you think this memorandum will ultimately get signed? Or is this just another false bullish signal in the market?
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