Listening to these people say that the carry trade will reverse, I’ve gotten calluses on my ears. Every time the Bank of Japan takes action, someone yells about a crash. And what’s the result? $ETH has fallen back to 1697, down nearly two points, but is the market really panicking?

No.

When that previous wave pushed prices up, the group was all shouting “bulls are back.” Now, with the Bank of Japan saying they’ll continue to raise interest rates, everyone seems to be like they’ve been stepped on. A carry trade reversal, in simple terms, means the people borrowing yen to buy coins need to repay their loans, and capital is flowing back to Japan.

But what’s interesting is that this time, I haven’t seen a significant drop in $ETH ’s open interest, nor has the funding rate collapsed. What does that indicate?

It shows that some people are talking about risk, but their positions remain unchanged, and they’re even still adding.

My personal feeling is that these kinds of news shocks are increasingly like “the wolf is coming.” The first time, everyone ran quickly; the second time, they hesitated; by the third, some are starting to see it as an opportunity to buy.

Of course, I’m not saying there’s no fear of rate hikes, but the market has become desensitized to this kind of script.

What really caught my attention is the open interest data. If in the next few days the open interest suddenly shrinks, then that’s a real problem.

Right now, it’s more like using news to shake out the longs, clearing out those with weak leverage, and then pushing prices up again.

Anyway, I don’t believe this wave can directly break through $ETH ’s previous lows. Whenever this kind of “carry trade reversal” anxiety appears, it’s usually a good time to buy on dips—just most people don’t dare to act out of fear.

Honestly, do you really think this time the Bank of Japan’s statement can crush the crypto market? Let’s discuss in the comments—see who’s truly panicking and who’s just picking up bargains.

The topic of the Bank of Japan continuing to raise interest rates and the risk of carry trade reversal cannot be avoided. Looking at this statement, it’s basically about tightening liquidity further, which for the crypto world means higher costs for borrowing yen to buy coins, and there’s indeed pressure for capital to flow back from high-risk assets.

But this wave of sentiment feels more like a short-term shock. The real impact will only be clear once the upcoming contract open interest and capital flow data are released. A quick dip is actually a window to observe the market’s resilience.