I’m done—every time I touch $BTC, it reverses.

I was still hesitating whether to flip long with that giant whale, but the market decided for me.

Once that FOMC thing came out, Powell immediately gave up on forward guidance. On the dot plot, 9 guys thought there would be more rate hikes this year—then $BTC promptly crashed from 65k. Across the whole internet, more than 4 billion was liquidated in just a few hours.

That 6x short I entered at 65523 is now around 62657, with nearly 40% unrealized profit, but honestly, I’m not daring to get cocky.

The biggest thing people fear in a market like this isn’t making money—it’s after you make money, thinking you’re some kind of god.

The market is clearly digesting two logics right now: 1) the Fed isn’t playing innocent dovish anymore. In the statement, they deleted soft talk like “further adjusting interest rates,” and their stance is downright tough; 2) the memorandum on the U.S.-Iran side has been signed. Geopolitical pressure is easing for now, but there’s no sign that funds are flowing back into risk assets.

$BTC can’t even hold 63,000. And $ETH—straight up—broke 1700. Altcoins are generally dumping like floodgates opening. This institutional sell-off was pretty well-timed; it doesn’t look like pure panic—it looks more like a planned sweep to clear long leverage.

My own strategy is simple: don’t chase shorts, don’t try to buy the bottom—wait for a second test.

The unrealized profit on the short looks great, but the real test is when the rebound comes and I get stabbed out. The volume from 65k to 62k wasn’t even that extreme, which suggests there are still longs that haven’t been liquidated yet. That “dog trader” might very well pull another round to lure longs in before smashing again.

If $BTC rebounds into the 63,500–64,000 range on shrinking volume, I’ll consider adding to the short. If it climbs back and holds above 64500 on heavy volume, then I’ll accept the output and leave no overnight risk.

The FOMC shock is still compounding—this topic’s plot hasn’t finished yet. That prior liquidation was just the appetizer. The whale’s move of going from short to long in a reversal shows that big money is also betting on a short-term liquidity repair after the policy shift. But for retail traders, jumping in to catch the falling knife is way too easy—it’s exactly how you get trapped and cleared.

Over the next few days, if $BTC can’t quickly reclaim above 64000, the downtrend will be reinforced further. $ETH will keep dragging down with it, and altcoins will continue to flood out. The derivatives market will enter an accelerated deleveraging phase. Only after this wave of longs gets cleared will we be able to see the real bottom.

Do you think $BTC can break 60,000 this week? I want to hear different opinions.
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