The strongest odds in the airdrop track are from the fact that the top player still hasn’t issued tokens, while the second-place player overtakes on the curve.

The best example is OpenSea and Blur in the NFT track.
At the time, OS was the leading NFT exchange, its valuation rose rapidly, and everyone was extremely bullish on OS—while Blur wasn’t even in the running for second place.
In the end, the guys who were bullish on the NFT track but didn’t claim Blur ended up with nothing, and now the prediction market is seeing the same thing happen again.
If you really back a track, you should hold it in more than one way— even with multiple hands.