The US Dollar Index broke through the 101 level today, reaching a new high not seen since May 2025—its highest level in more than a year—and it has risen for three consecutive days. The core drivers come from two fronts: the first appearance of the Fed’s Waller at the FOMC, releasing an unexpectedly hawkish signal, and safe-haven buying brought on by the cancellation of US-Iran talks, together lifting the US dollar.

Goldman Sachs’ Vice Chairman Kaplan said that if inflation remains persistently high, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as early as September, and rate hikes often come in a series.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December rate hike has jumped from 61% before the policy meeting to 87%.

The US dollar’s strength is weighing on BTC prices through two channels. First, tightening conditions in the global US dollar financing environment is bearish for all US dollar–denominated risk assets. Second, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq remains above 0.6, and the strong dollar erodes multinational companies’ overseas revenue expectations; pressure on tech stocks then drags BTC lower.

If expectations for a September rate hike continue to strengthen, then it’s GG.

The resistance zone is at $64,000–$65,000. Only regaining that level and seeing increased volume would be a signal of stabilization. With both macro and geopolitical pressures weighing in right now, it’s better to wait patiently for a clearer sign that things have stabilized. $BTC