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Breaking news: Iran has officially suspended all negotiation talks for 60 days, citing Israel’s attacks on southern Lebanon and the U.S.’s violation of the first clause of the memorandum of understanding.
Previously, Iran had only delayed its trip to Switzerland for the signing ceremony; now it has directly paused the entire negotiation window. This marks a major upgrade at the level of agreement implementation.
The in-person signing ceremony originally scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland has been officially canceled. Vice President Vance has canceled his trip to Switzerland, and the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed this. This means the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has officially shifted from “implementation in doubt” to “implementation suspended.” The geopolitical risk discount logic that had previously been driving BTC’s rebound is now reversing.
BTC has fallen below the key support level of $63,000 and is currently trading weakly in the $62,000–$63,000 range. However, buy-side demand is extremely weak, and sell pressure dominates.
Market maker Wintermute warns that BTC could drop to $50,000. Although this is an extreme scenario assumption by the market maker, it reflects institutional vigilance about worsening market sentiment.
There are two key points to watch next:
1. Has Iran officially announced withdrawal from the memorandum? If it withdraws, geopolitical risks will fully return.
2. Will Israel carry out a larger-scale military action in Lebanon? If it escalates, BTC will directly test the previous lows. In addition, once $60,000 is broken, the downside could open to $58,000 and even $55,000.
The $60,000–$62,000 range currently has a dense concentration of positions and is the bulls’ last line of defense. In the short term, it’s not advisable to catch a falling knife on the left side; instead, it’s better to wait for tangible signs that the geopolitical situation is easing—for example, when U.S. pressure on Israel starts to take effect or when Iran returns to the negotiating table, before considering entry. $BTC