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STRC De-pegging: Saylor’s big BTC gamble is being tested by the market
STRC dipped to a daily low of $82-85 yesterday, a historical low
Strive CEO came out to explain that this was a leverage liquidation event, not an issue with underlying credit, but the market clearly hasn’t fully bought it
SATA also fell in sync to the $90 range. Strategy’s overall market value dropped to $39.92 billion, falling out of the top 250 U.S.-listed companies
The most striking figure: $BTC has an open-position unrealized loss exceeding $10.8 billion
The company’s official response is: Selling BTC can pay dividends for 32 years
That statement in itself is fine, but it doesn’t answer the question the market is truly asking. The market is asking: if BTC keeps falling, when will you be forced to sell?
The core of the entire narrative Saylor built over the past few years is that he will never sell BTC. Once that commitment develops a crack, the credit structure will be re-priced—not linearly, but non-linearly
The real risk isn’t today’s de-pegging; it’s the break in expectation management
Holders of STRC/SATA aren’t just buying returns—they’re buying the belief that “Saylor won’t be forced to sell.” When KOLs begin publicly questioning it, they’re eroding the foundation of that belief
Leverage liquidations can trigger rebounds, but once trust is shaken, the rebound upside has an upper limit
If BTC holds, Saylor’s story is still being told. If BTC breaks a key support level, the ending of this story won’t be written by him anymore